40/70 Benchmark

Yea, we aren't getting that kind of drastic flip....also true that it was "only" a double dip la nina, but that is certainly not prohibitive of a similar type of modoki el nino for the 2023-2024 winter season. I don't expect it to remain a weak el nino because we haven't had a significant warm ENSO event since the 2015-2016 super el nino.

Oh, that is rainstorm? Yea, trolled the winter guys, too.

Yea, that's what I am getting at....activity level wise, it certainly was not tame....but in terms of lasting impact, last season may not have been tame, but it certainly wasn't anything memorable for most in this region....the thing is that that flooding occurred over such a densely populated area, otherwise no one would have batted an eye lash. But if you need to cite the total rainfall over a 60 day period to support your argument that it wasn't tame, then yea....lol.

Well, to be fair, I think there would be some skepticism if we had hit mid January with cold modeled in the long range after having had it either pushed back or not materializing all season to date. I'm sure at some point it will get warmer and more humid, but when and how much is TBD. I'll sell that modeled depiction.

I can't complain if it takes until peak climo to really crank up the dews.....even in the best seasons, we get it sooner or later. At least we're only about a month from Tip letting us know that his bum-bum was a bit less toasty when he sat down in his Volvo.

I get that significant amount of people were impacted very adversely by flooding, etc....but in terms of a truly devastating impact from a tropical cyclone in the traditional sense, we are still waiting for that. Once mother nature collects on that tab, we will know it because there will be no need to debate, or call anyone's attention to the borrough in NYC that had some flooding, or to the rainy 60 day period, etc. We will all remember it clear as day for the rest of our lives, and so won't our children and grandchildren. Good rule of thumb...when you need to remind people of an impact several months later, or cite the litany of reasons as to why you feel that it was impactful, then its probably not to the degree of impact to which people were referencing in the first place. It shouldn't need to be argued.

Well, I was obviously being sarcastic when referring to last year as tame from the standpoint of overall tropical activity.....but from an impact standpoint? At least in New England, I had already forgotten about last season. Left a lot on the table......I was all over that Henri head-fake. Lots of people fell for it in assuming a proficient recovery from shear in the mid latitudes, which is often a mistake. The most impressive impact last season in New England was the nor'easter in October. Nothing else was memorable for me.

The lack of activity in December was due to the compressed flow the big negative anomaly out west, and the transient neg NAO node later in the month. I think the imperfect phases later in the season were cyclogenesis defects that are prominent in the absence of high latitude blocking.

2009-2010, too. Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME.

Golf isn't my thing, so I'm out. I'll try for a more conventional GTG later in the fall.

Humidity really down...feels great.

Its tame if the east coast doesn't get a cat 3

Get his number?

Hopefully we can get this Pamela Anderson pattern during the cold season.

I haven't minded this summer at all to this point. Can't complain about some dews in July....it hasn't been bad.

Yea, my area, too. I measured .16" at midnight, and got drenched, thereafter. Will have to check the gage when I get home tonight.

I was surprised by how much it rained last night...poured for a while.

There are some signs that this la nina may try to go more central based than last year's, which was heavily eastern biased. That would likely mean a pretty good likelihood of a better December and worse mid season relative to last year. Caveat being that la nina should also be less prominent, which inherently makes ENSO more of a wildcard.

Yea, Cosgrove has been all over a subpar tropical season in terms of activity, but not necessarily level of impact, as of course it only takes one. He has been on quite a heater over the past few years. I strongly recommend his stuff.

I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver.

It's going to be pretty modest next winter...its not a "game over" proposition. We just had a weak el nino a few years ago act more like an el nino...it can go both ways. That said, I wouldn't expect a monster mid atl snow season. Can't necessarily say the same for 2023-2024.

Count me out

I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.

No worries, do whatever gets your rocks off....judment free zone this day and age.

Here is one for @forkyforkto link in OT