40/70 Benchmark

It won't be weaker...we are ascending into SC 25, but I think those sudden, big flare ups can wreak havoc with the polar domain.

March 1975 was pretty good, too.

Yup...big solar flare. I also think the solar flare last October played a role in keeping the polar domain pretty hostile most of the season...thankfully we got the poleward Aleutian ridge in January with the la nina being so eastern biased. I'm not worried about a 2011-2012 outcome, but we will deal with some lower heights up there is this remains a modoki.

Yea, I have been placing the over/under at 1/2" for eastern areas.

Yep. What a PITA forecast.

But if it has some tropical characteristics, then there will be plenty of moisture....just maybe more compact.

Good consensus for at least about a half inch of rain here...whether I get grazed on the western edge, or its LBSE TBD.

If you are really worried about that stray 2011-2012 outcome, then I guess it would be comforting to see it more basin wide. Last year I saved the la nina EMI composites for the outlook itself because I was still editing them, but I can probably introduce them next week, since its all I need to do is add last season to the east-based composite.

I think the most significant change would be that we would be more likely to see some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging, but unless it were strong, the data doesn't show that it is a huge deal. As far as intensity....sure, a moderate peak is definitely plausible because its never really strayed far below that threshold, but again....I don't feel its a big deal unless it got closer to the strong threshold, which I do not expect. I think basin wide could also alter the timing in that it would increase the odds of a favorable mid season stretch, and place less emphasis early on in the season, but that is kind of minute detail for this range.

Maybe this is Brian's Redzone run...

At least the discourse over my posting habits doesn't detract from the quality of the threads as much as the discussion of actual weather phenomena apparently does.

You don't have the Payperview GFS+ package?

I think he interpreted that as me doubting his measurement, but I was actually referring to some of the smaller numbers that should have been higher due to settling over time and wind displacement, etc.

The art of trolling devolves then the troll tries too hard to elicit a reaction...it gets pretty transparent. You need to hone your passive aggressive skills.

I am not talking about you specifically....but in a storm of that magnitude, the duration, wind and circumstances such as the example Steve spoke of, can make it more difficult to obtain accurate measurements. And this speaks nothing of the disparity in measuring techniques over time.

So leave, and then you don't need sift.

Only today...what data do you have supporting this? Anyway, this is actually the time of year when I begin to come back as fall nears.

I think there is still room for this to become more of a basin wide event, but I don't see it becoming a decidedly eastern biased deal like last year. I don't think its a big deal whether its modoki or basin wide given that it will remain fairly weak.

I'll defer to you on that since you lived it and I didn't. I also think a lot of the records from a storm like that are crap and not very accurate, as Steve alluded to.

Have at it...no one would care because you would be the only hapless soul doing it and your posts would get scrolled.

I don't think it would have been 28-30", @STILL N OF PIKE......if we are saying 23" (don't have the climo data in front of me, it was probably like 26-27"...normal rate of compaction is about 1"/10' snowfall. Granted the wind was strong, which would augment compaction, but the rates were not super intense lake effect level like the March 2018 deal was IMBY. I was more like consistent 1"/hr over a 24 hour stretch with like a 10: ratio......its the low water content fluff like I saw in March 2018 that compacts more.

This is true. SNE.

Yea, I was going to add that caveat......I will be delving into that much more beginning next week and through to the release of the outlook in November. Certainly can change...

I think Jan 05 on the cape and Feb 78 from the s shore into N RI are about as it bad as a storm will ever get in this region for snow/wind combo. Feb 13' in CT and Dec '92 in the Berkshires for snowfall specifically.