40/70 Benchmark

Winds back up to 60mph....AWT Shear should pick up again later Saturday.

Not historically, but it's been a rough several years.

There is a sliver of a bit lighter shear on the analysis, but it may admittedly be irrelevant. Its not a huge deal...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/tropical-storm-fiona-represents-first.html

Believe me, I desperately want interesting weather as much as any of us, but I can feign interest in this...it is what it is. No offense to those deeply interested in waves or meager tropical threats...its a weather forum. Have at it and to each their own.

Its a catch 22....if it entrains more dry air once n of the islands, it intensifies more slowly, and threatens the se as a more meager system...if it ingests less dry air, it goes to town and gives ginxy and pickles their wave orgy. This is why major impactor is exceedingly unlikely.

I think it has until tomorrow to ramp up some, but it should struggle again as it bypasses PR.

I'm just blogging right now and one of my slides is actually to illustrate that small window for some reorganization over the next 12-24 hours or so before it gets a bit more hostile again INVOF greater Antilles. Agree.

Yep. This is why I was telling people not to get wrapped up in watching how close it passes to the NE...unless you are interested in waves, then that is legit.

John, I was just trolling you towards the end...I get it, in all seriousness. NP.

I think I see why the GFS takes off more than anything else....it looks like it manages to keep the drier air to the west further removed from the core of Fiona, after it gets IVOF the Bahamas early next week.

I don't give a shit how others feel, I'll just go on to write 8 paragraphs about how they feel that no one will read.

No...wrong reason. Again, its not out of disappointment, but its knowing I should blog about it when I don't want to. If presuming to tell others how they feel is not the epitome of condescending "psycho-babble", then I'm not sure what is. Irony.

That's why I never insert into safe weather in the first place.....celibacy FTW.

Right for the wrong reason...in all honestly, my "psycho-babble" motivation for doing this has nothing to do with disappointment because I never had hopes for this, honestly; but instead its a conflict between my apathy as it pertains to this particular system as a hobbyist, with my recognition that its probably just about blog-worthy and I don't care to exert the effort as a result of said apathy. But I did ultimately characterize his stance as "fair", so while perhaps my initial posture bordered on condescending, it ended in validation. On other note, I am willing to bet that those "gaslight" posts are consumed in their entirety at a far higher rate than your posts. JK-kinda...

Yea, that's fine...it just wasn't initially apparent to me that the model we were referring to was the CMC Only reason I was confused.

Perfectly fair and agreed. I love the tropics, but TS level impact doesn't do much for me. 25% of some sort of direct impact on the US, regardless of intensity, seems about right.

I didn't even realize that CEM2 was the GEM....I guess that is why he thought that, if it is....

I'll begin to practice staying safe. Between the waves on ACK and the .20" on rain in a 1/2 hour next week, there will be plenty to talk about.

How does his post imply that the CMC settles it? The CMC has been the furthest west all along... not sure I see your point.

Have you ever noticed that the mere mentioned of SNE severe earns you a bukake of weenies?

Who would have though that heat would wane as we near the Equinox....weather never ceases to amaze me.

The CEM2, which is on a bee line towards the US, probably the weakest of all of the guidance.

What these folks like the tweeter above fail to tell you is that, while yes....a US LF, while unlikely, remains very possible.....it would more than likely be as a TS or POSSIBLY a very minimal hurricane if it were to track that far west. It would be one of these "rain-maker" deals.

I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward.