40/70 Benchmark

I think this timing is perfect TBH.....the only season that I can recall to have early December snow not rot is 1995....every other large early December snowfall was skunked and nearly gone by the holidays. I am talking e MA coastal plane...obviously this is probably different in the ORH hills.

Why would we move it to a date where less people will show per the poll? Are there any folks who would like to change their vote?

You have a point about the PV, but no one expected this season to be frigid...all the more reason to be leery of the early threats until climo catches up.

I am confident that this season will provide enough high latitude blocking for that not to be a major issue for the majority of the season. Perhaps I will be wrong, but the passage of the MJO through the maritime continent in early December is not a sign of that.

I am going to keep abreast with the tropics more than I have in previous seasons, as that is why I missed the mild mid winter stretch last season......I don't see any deviation from the forecast as of yet....el Nino maybe peaking on the high end of my 1.7 to 1.9 range, but that is NBD.

My thoughts on the month was always serviceable and backloaded.....and you take that an bolt in a strong el Nino. The hand wringing in November is beyond me.

You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.

Its several years of cool ENSO PTSD....having the MJO in the maritime continent is triggering, especially in light of having those huge NAO blocks last season not bare any fruit for the coastal plane.

I am I would advise everyone to set expectations for around Christmas and beyond....while past mid month may be fair game, the greater likelihood is a bit later than that IMHO...best not to set up for disappointment.

Yes, I know....not concerned at all. I would much rather this than a canonical el Nino look....as it means the forcing is still west. During a warm ENSO, you would rather be trying to move the forcing east than west....much more achievable correction vector. Its like when folks are comforted by the GFS being offshore, rather than inland in a synoptic sense. But 'alas, its going to trigger some cold ENSO PTSD from the snow spazoids.

I was hesitant to buy into some of those really favorable early month looks and figured that it would back step, but the issue is that now the people like Snowski that latched onto it like a Pitbull are going to be relentless.

I agree....not quite 1978, but it was close.

.42" total RF....underperformer.

December 12 is still too early IMO...if there is nothing imminent by Christmas, then that maybe a bit eye opening.

Same page.

It was always clear to me, but hopefully this puts to rest for some other folks the idea of Tonga pulling a Pinatubo.

I think 2014 is a decent match to this past fall, too. 1965, 1968 and 1987 look best moving forward.

Do The Boys realize that you don't get high draft picks for tanking in the Post season? I mean, they may as well start winning SBs again.

I flipped around 1AM in Wilmington

Okay, my bad. Thanks.

It didn't last more than 1 day?

It lasted a few days....wasn't a one day affair.

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning. Lets do that this month.

Fine with me...I was saying I felt like this overtrended and would adjust back some. Makes sense.

Expecting the residual cool ENSO atmospheric momentum to manifest as another very la Nina like pattern with a big se ridge is every bit as reductive as viewing the ONI and the SST distribution earlier this fall and expecting a super, canonical el Nino response this winter.