40/70 Benchmark

At this range, I am more confident I'm this pattern materializing than I was March 2018....that was many strat...this is strat and tropics...probably more tropics. Patterns dependent on mainly strat are riskier bc funky shit can happen with PV splits, etc.

I would get it if we were seeing a black hole over AK with a death star PV, but 'cmon....so we wait until climo gets better and are closer to the holidays...boo hoo lol. This isn't going to go away or fail...its rooted in the stratosphere and tropics. It's not just clown range model antics. Could we still just end up with shit luck and not much snow? Sure, but odds are against it.

Funky Murphy's, Worcester.

Thing is I can't count on one hand the number of major snow storms I have had prior to 12/10.....people just totally forget that..why folks in SNE want a great pattern on 12/5 is beyond me....holding off isn't the worst outcome.

I guess in some alternative universe 12/6 is after 12/10....the weather weenie XFiles

.23" RF today...Hi of 56

I will take -NAO/RNA regime over -NAO/+PNA....especially in December.

Take a look at January 1969....brutal luck, then shit hit the fan in February.....1995 was the exception in that the pattern paid off immediately. That usually isn't the case....much like everything else in nature, there is a lag...just like with respect to the seasons relative to the sun.

I'm the first one to melt and bitch when I feel like things have gone wrong, but we just aren't there yet.

Yea, the first half of the pattern always favored the interior in my mind, too.....so figure the window open between 12/10 and 12/14 for interior...the coast joins the frey after mid potentialwise mid month and we also can't forget that the first couple of cracks at it often don't pan out in these patterns....so the coast could very easily be waiting until around or just before xmas without anything having gone wrong pattern wise. This is why I stressed that the coast may nor have a white xmas and kost of the fun comes in January when I wrote everything up in November. It looked like maybe things were speeding up, but that has ceased.

Except in a negative PNA/NAO pattern...its cold east and west in the north.

Is still too rushed? Maybe...its always been a matter of when, not if. I originally expected the fireworks in January, anyway

It's not just about model forecasting skill, though. This big block is not going away....do I trust long range guidance? No. But I do trust my ability assess the tropical landscape, and the tropics and to a lesser extent the stratosphere is not going to allow this to go to crap. Not happening. Now, if someone is going to yell bust because we don't end up with January 2011 or March 2018, then that is on them.

This still has historic potential.

Anything before 12/14 was always gravy....that's only the first few days of the post 12/10 that I cited last week.

Through an IMBY lens, I would prefer this over arctic flood gates pouring in. I'll take my chances here....the ceiling is immense.

Sorry, it was right after me,so got confused

Having some factors being more hostile than others isn't prohibitive to snow....I'm mot saying its December 2001. All I mean is that it's not frigid and the coast may squirm early on. The RNA is relatively hostile this month...on obviously that doesn't mean it can't snow.

Yea, things have trended a bit more towards the type of progression that I had envisioned last month for the month of December....with the need to fight the Pacific alot this month, which favors up and in....at least initially. Albeit the NAO is still more aggressive earlier relative to what I had thought. Anyway, December looked to me like a slow build up for alot of us and that looks to be the case. Nothing is "cancelled", troll lens not withstanding.

GFS is better than the CMC, dude

@Ginx snewxAny room next to you? I think it's a good time to just sit and smile for awhile...

Yea, this is why I just made a general post describing the pattern and the inherent potential that comes along with it. But I won't post anything about specific threats until sometime next week at the earliest.

I think some of use would be okay, too.

You aren't much higher than my "conservative" ranges lol

Yea, I like him more for medium range.