40/70 Benchmark

Gotta agree with Kev here, as much as it pains me

Sign me up. This will be a fun stretch, regardless of any delays.

Not to mention we are ultimately going to get more help in the Pacific than we did that season.

Take a look at the climo data and see how wet this pattern is....

December 1968 with 5.1"

February with 41.3". These type of patterns take time, but seldom fail to produce for us.

This is January 1969 with 0.9".

No. How about this one?

I want to play a game......someone tell me how much snow Boston received this month?

This is not some silver bullet that will torpedo the winter, but rather the difference between this year and 1995-1996.

Yea, that's what kills the first several days of the post 12/10 period for alot of folks...block is inhibited on the western limb, where it matters, and the west coast takes on a full latitude trough type of look. That's not a deal breaker....just more of a nuisance that delays things. But these types of patterns out west were planned for in my conceptualization, which is why I explicitly stated that the mid atl likely waits until January to cash in big time, and white xmas along the SNE coast is more dubious...inland SNE and of course NNE good to go.

Yea, of course its too much. Most of us know each other so it isn't a big deal. Nothing personal...sometimes I just sense an annoying kind of tendency to search for the easiest path to get a rise out of folks, like a few other guys on here. Again, nothing personal...just more of a shot at your forum mojo.

Fire it up.

Big blocking patterns set us up for this....we get lots of hype leading them, but the payoff is usually delayed. Add in that it's the start of the season and it's a perfect storm of angst.. especially considering we got screwed by the largest RNA on record last December.

Right.

It's tough to ever look great for the coast in early Dec, though...climo is what it is.

Initially, yes. Its serviceable for the coast...just more of an uphill battle.

The best pattern for SNE is not neg NAO +PNA IMHO ...that is ideal for mid atl and se. What we should hope for is neg NAO, neg EPO/modest RNA split flow...have a conga line of PAC SWs head east and run into: 1) The block sending the wave underneath us. 2) Arctic air spilling in from the M stream via the AK ridge.

God, you are such a puke. They implied that the GEFS and GEPS may be handling the Pacific better in that the neutralization of the RNA will be delayed (which I agree with)....has nothing to do with his point, which was the NAO block sending the chain of PAC shortwaves south and under said block. Classic neg NAO/RNA snow pattern.

YES.

Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO....the RNA just can't be extreme.

Yea, I got burned hard core in 2020...one of two huge busted seasonal forecasts. I don't foresee an official SSW this year...just MHO.

Usually the big events that I do get in the first half of December are from SWFE, etc...not coastals....in a way, it's better for the coast to hold off on the big coastal pattern.

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.