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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    1995 had a window in February, but the blocking was less anomalous and more transient.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean...you do the math:
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season. I understand that, but it wasn't that warm in the mean...no one compared it to Feb 2015. Grouping it with 1994 is silly.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again, 2004-2005 is being mischaracterized here....the season was biased in the mean by a very prominent early season PV, however, there was a distinct duality to that season....the second half had severe bouts of high latitude blocking...much more anomalous than 1995, which is why it was one of the most prolific seasons in SNE history.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly. The orientation of el nino is not "moot" because of a sample size of two that were significantly varied from one another in their own right. I had a 107.5" just north of Boston in 2005 with a 60" average.....that works as a modiki in my book.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you know how to find historic wind data?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely can for me...last year wasn't historically bad here....just a run-of-the-mill terd.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not that concerned about a blow torch....I mean, that Philosophy works if you just toss darts at a dart board, but I'm pretty confident it won't be your prototypical very warm el nino...at least not prohibitively so. Just want an active track for the area.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean slide south of me...last weekend did and next weekend may. Don't have a good feel because I'm not tracking.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance's outlook sums up my last 6 seasons.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't analyze Fall systems....still looks to graze south.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is that Miller A whiffs are an illustration of a main concern this season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably strong ONI and moderate MEI/RONI...just strong enough to bombard me with Miller up the (A) rse.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I'll take 60"+ and run.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weaker.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The hope is el nino continues to shit the bed enough where the STJ is less prominent and we get more N stream reliant.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've had it 6 years running...I'll lose it if it goes 7.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not crazy about the trend of these systems to slide south...been an issue in -PDO el nino seasons.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look forward to delving into it sometime soon. Always appreciate your work.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Welcome back to my range.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I remember @raindancewxsaying that a lot of the warmer eastern el nino analogs had warmer months October....so even though I know it isn't correlated to winter per se, it may be more important this year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I walked that statement back....not well thought out response on my part. Its actually one of my analogs. I expect the polar domain to be different than 1972, but point taken.
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