40/70 Benchmark

More are going to join me after Friday.

December 1992 is gone. Everything is awful but the GFS, which is still awful...though closest to not awful.

So far, so good....not perfect, but decent.

You are right about that. Last night was nice, despite coming up as a local min yet again.....but the 1" cover is tenous and its Monday AM...leg day at the GYM, too....so agree with respect to the mood aspect. Like I said, I see the argument for colder and will see how things look tomorrow.

I've said this before, but with each passing day I feel more like I just need to mouthwash this interminable and insufferable cool ENSO episode the fu&* out of the hemisphere before my luck will change. Just something in the DNA/footprint of this particular ENSO episode that just despises winer in NE MA/SE NH. Fu*&* it.

Yea, I would still feel okay in western NE. Agree.

That would be a feat in and of itself....having an -8SD NAO block, or whatever the hell it is...avoiding the prototypical "Grincher", yet still manufacturing a way to steer clear of a white Xmas.

Yea, day 4-5....doesn't change anything in my mind. From my vantage point, the inherent "potential" of this pattern belies the fact that it looks pretty damn tenuous for my area right out through Xmas at this particular point in time.

I get it...there is a block, its still 4 days out, blah, blah...plenty of time. But I just had a feeling all along that if this was going to work out for my area, then things would have looked better than this at day 4. My gut is that I have a bad feeling we are settling in on a solution and its one that is going to pork my general area.....again, albeit in a different manner than this past one did. That primary started to hang on longer with 00z Sunday suite and we've just been chasing our tail ever since....not good at this range. Again, this is with respect to my area....I get that those out west are still very much in play.

Christmas is saved

The trend on the GFS was more encouraging than the one on the EURO IMO.

I only look for a quick assessment of trends...that's it. I also look aloft, of course.

Yea, those always work out.

In that case, let me grab Tiny Tim and rejoice I just feel like anyone on the CP is getting to the point where its like a cat running around in a circle trying to catch its tail......just obsessing over minute trends that may or may not be noise, but in the end really won't alter the forecast much in YBY.

Hopefully the block exerts more of an influence. I'll do a First Call on that one tomorrow, but I think my preview map from Friday is the ceiling on that one.

I'm just about ready to punt the 16th.

There really is not much of a difference at all from 12z at the surface....6" line goes from like Dendrite to maybe KCON. Nothing jumps out at me aloft...we need more than that.

1" total....no complaints. Nice, little festive first snowfall.

Those maps are too liberal with snow....NARCAN will be worse....and more accurate.

These are not big changes...its basically noise.

Tell tale sign a storm blows in when you are inside of 5 days, people talk about "positive steps" and you look to see that it's still nowhere close to giving you snow.

@512highIf you knew Wolfie, then you would get it.

We have three more big shots this month...12/16, 12/23ish and probably something the week between xmas and NY. It's becoming easier to view a path to relatively meager totals this month is 12/16 largely fails. I still feel like I have a shot at like 6" 12/16, but needs work.

Maybe? Kinda? Sort of?