40/70 Benchmark

Well, my analog composite has a triple dose of 2020-2021, so.....

How about depriving the host of a courtesy flush, and just allow things to fester for a bit....that's how I roll-

That is what I meant when I said that I liked the pattern progression relative to climo.

Ninja.

Yea, but people come here for good analysis because we have great mets in these threads, and its hard to totally check the IMBY goggles at the door. I get it.

That is more like my version of the month.

Sign me up. I'd take that over Feb 2010.

I get why he is a bit more paranoid down in Jersey.

I think the goal posts are essentially my version of December, which punts the first week to 10 days of the month for SNE, and the more aggressive versions of yesterday and last night. I don't think that the month will go to shit.

I think the main deviation from what I had expected for the month of December when I issued my outlook a couple of weeks ago is that the neg NAO looks a bit more pronounced, which turns this: Into this: NO Note how the more pronounced high latitude blocking earlier in the season helps to relegate any semblance of a se ridge to the southern mid Atlantic, as compared to modest positive anomalies encroaching on the NE in the aforementioned guidance and seasonal forecast composite. While the month appears as though it may be trending a bit cooler due to what may transpire at higher latitudes, all is not lost if this does indeed revert back to a slightly tamer look. The month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset mentioned on the seasonal forecast, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid-Atlantic may find snowfall scare, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coast storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlantnic. While this is not your prototypical "big dog pattern", they are possible should a worthy wave become pinned beneath the NAO block, a la Jan 2011. Said system would be of the miller B variety and primarily impact from the 40th parallel on north. December Forecast H5 Composite: The real fireworks may come after the new year.

It only averaged +.01 for JM, so it was basically neutral....I'm sure we did.

The RNA is riskier where you are, so maybe that is feeding your anxst...but I wouldn't sweat if the neg NAO materializes.

Exactly how I feel...I literally wrote that in my seasonal write up for December.

Somewhat stronger? Maybe.....but the odds of the month working out as poorly as last December with some semblance of high latitude blocking are fairly remote. Don't forget...it wasn't just the record RNA, but it was the fact that its flex was perfectly timed with the flax of the neg NAO, so which created that God awful shredder of a gradient. The NAO could also trend stronger, or better positioned, too.

I don't think the majority of posters truly appreciate the magnitude of that RNA last December.

Saying that this December looks like a copy of December 2021 is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard on this forum....stick to fondling your @snowman21 blow-up doll. Wow...this is a run-of-the-mill RNA regime as currently modeled, which coupled with blocking in the polar domain has been historically one of the most fruit patterns for the northeast in terms of snowfall. Comparing this to last December is akin to (insert moron 5PPD) comparing every snowstorm to the blizzard of '78, or '96.

I love the progression of the pattern relative to climo.

Sounds about right.

I mean on average pattern per pattern it wouldn't be as cold.

Yes, it is. I'm not saying it would be as cold, obviously with climate change, but negative NAO/PNA regime was a staple of the 60s winters.

It's a 1960s look.

Agree.

I love that look....very active.