40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yes, I think early December backs off a bit.
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Typo lol
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I'll be 42. Kev just turned 50.
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Hope my Bday cruise to the Bahamas isn't ruined...yikes. Leaving Friday...
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He's okay medium range, but I don't think much of him as a seasonal forecaster
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No, there are patterns that are game over for everyone....at least SNE, anyway. That isn't one of then. You can tell Canada is cold. Take a look at a DM composite of 1973-1974, 1975-1976 and 2007-2008. Good example of an atrocious pattern on paper that ends up serviceable for NE and even very good in NNE.
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That is the silver bullet of seasonal foreacsting....we all know that ENSO isn't the only game in town, but figuring out all of those other nuanced forces that drive the MJO and overall Rosby wave train.
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Not on the entire forecast....that sensible weather composite is just one new tool I have tried this year. Everything else looks good.
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Not sure what I am going to do yet....if December doesn't look bad, I may just tweak it.
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This is what the CFS looked like on 10/17
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Oh, you mean the month is still young....true. But a couple of weeks ago, guidance matched my composite. It's not a good sign when the trend during the lead in is opposite of the desired direction. The month just kept correcting warmer.
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Thats ugly for the mid atl, not most of NE. March was the best month on 2000-2001.
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I feel like the pattern will really be great late this month, but don't think it holds through the holidays.
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I have a couple...1975-1976 was a slightly toned down 2007-2008...sharp gradient. 1973-1974 was like that, too. Unfavorable per teleconnections, but Canada was so cold that the north did well.
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Doesn't matter...I begin matching them in June. They had been matching well, but november may screw it up.
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Yea, sucks....that's giving me pause with respect to my sensible weather analogs....they were doing great until now.
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I think this year's piece is pretty good...I've really been able to dig beyond the ENSO structural variations, while achieving forecast symmetry via consensus from a variety of different angles. I was able to dig into the polar domain a bit more this season, which should hopefully improve what has been a dreadful area for me. I have managed to work around that with respect to la nina, but misdiagnosing the polar domain absolutely killed me in the el nino seasons of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.
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Def warmer then...thanks.
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No, he and DT are aggressive. LC has the best snows NW of us, but still above average here.
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I would like to see the 50mb charts from Novie 2000.
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The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused. Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO.
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What is the difference between Canadian warming VS SSW? I take it the former is more minor?
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November 2000 had a Canadian warming event, which led to a displacement in December and split in Feb.
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I'm surprised I haven't hard more about that PV split...probably bc its so early.
