40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I would absolutely go unhinged.
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"Looks great at H5"....famous last words.
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I mean mid month onwards... -
I never waivered... what a first outlook.
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My yard work crucible pretty much ended this past weekend.....not too much left, but I took full advantage of the mild interludes.
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He's passively aggressively trolling Kev....can you come up with a marginally humorous meme for that?
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I'll comment a lot more once I have access to the data.....totally valid point on your part.
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Its not only about color shades on the H5 maps....its about the heights relative to the ambient envt....its tough to get warm with very high heights to your north, unless you have a raging PAC jet, which we do not in that image.
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My guess is relatively cool with the cold bleeding down from central Canada and being pinned into place underneath the block.
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Oh, I saw 1969 and immediately assumed Feb.
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Yea, I had about 3'.
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I'm kind of glad that I haven't started my subscriptions yet.....I remain on an oasis of sanity amidst the AMWX sea of neurosis.
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They have their xmas party in the afternoon?
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Maybe 6-10'ers, too....
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Gonna need a bigger boat.
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Yea, its a sheared-gradient pattern until about mid month.
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I am not worried at all about suppression given the Pacific. Totally different setup from 2010. Now, maybe as the block is developing we get some of John's gradient saturation, which could cause a sheared wave to go south due to attenuation, but that is different. Its more about getting the NAO to wax and wane for higher end storm potential....you want to avoid stagnation.
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Yes, mid-month towards the holidays offers higher end potential. Agreed.
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Not to mention that the block will relax a bit towards mid-month, which is normally when we see the higher end potential.
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Yea, Pacific should be better in January...many of my analogs did that.
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You have said yourself that the mid-winter period is more prone to velocity saturation than the book ends of the season...that said, I would not have an issue with a string of mod events from sheared out, attenuating waves....those are how we get our best months of December. We would have had that last December if it were not for the largest RNA on record.
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I think confidence is above average relative to the advanced lead due to consistent ensemble convergence.
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That is a blueprint to SNE history.
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You really can't stay safe enough...
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.62"...ended around midnight.
