40/70 Benchmark

Yea....

Major-Long Duration Winter Storm Likely for Deep Interior Elevations Friday-Saturday Power Outages Likely Berkshires and Possibly Northern Worcester Hills The first major winter storm of the season will be arriving late tonight and early tomorrow morning. The forecast remains largely unchanged from First Call issued on Tuesday, and even the same general synoptic conceptualization expressed in last Friday's Initial Assessment remains relatively consistent. The Synoptic Situation: Yesterday, deep low pressure began to interact with the negative NAO block that currently in place across southeastern Canada, which has slowed its northeast progression through the plains. Ordinarily, a storm system on the trajectory in the plains would mean a mild rainstorm for most of New England, however, it is beginning succumb to resistance from the block, which will eventually cause it to redevelop closer to the east late Friday night and early Saturday morning. This is what will allow a portion of the area to still experience a significant snowfall. Had the block not ceded any ground, then this transfer would have occurred earlier and more aggressively, which would mean that the secondary coastal low would take over faster and more aggressively, while also tracking further off shore. This would have resulted in a major snow storm for most of the area. But since the primary low is remaining dominant for a longer duration of time, the secondary low is developing later and tracking along the coast, which results in the majority of the forecast area experiencing primarily rain. This is why it is important to remember that it is the synoptic scale nuances that dictate the details of a storm, not necessarily the mode of large scale index, as evidenced by the fact that the NAO remains quite negative despite the small cessation of ground that proves crucial to the forecast. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Precipitation should begin as snow anywhere roughly outside of I495 and off of the south coast by around midnight early Friday morning, and perhaps by around 10pm late Thursday evening across western New England. However, the aforementioned stronger and more resilient primary low results in a stronger southwest flow aloft for a longer duration of time that ultimately scours out the antecedent cold more efficiently, and allows the secondary to track closer to the coast, which creates an easterly fetch into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Given the fact that sea surface temperatures this early in the season are near 50 degrees, this renders it impossible for any initial snowfall to last very long on the coastal plain of southern New England. Thus the precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and then rain anywhere east of the Worcester hills early Friday morning, However, this same easterly feature that results in rainfall further to the east will actually enhance snowfall over the Monadnocks and especially the east-faced slopes of the Berkshires. which means that very heavy snowfall is likely to continue through these areas all day on Friday and even perhaps into early Saturday morning. While it may continue to snow at some valley locations of western mass during Friday afternoon, it will likely struggle to accumulate as efficiently as locales at higher elevations above approximately 700', where power outages will be likely across the Berkshires, northern Worcester hills and Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. Rain may begin to change back to snowfall on early Saturday morning from west to east, as the secondary low pressure areas passes the region. And the midlevel low begins to redevelop along the coast. Had the block not eroded as much and allowed the primary to penetrate as high up in latitude as it did, this mid level redevelopment could have limited the change to rain, but it still may aid in a period of snow showers on Saturday afternoon all of the way to the coast before precipitation tapers off entirely. Final Call: First Call: Issued Tuesday December 13 at12pm. Initial Threat Assessment Issued on Friday, December 9 at 12pm:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/major-long-duration-winter-storm-likely_15.html

The Final Map should be a blast to draw up..time for the iced cream headache....Weeeeeeeeee

NAM has pretty shitty snow growth for ORH.

I summoned him yesterday

I think the fact that it occurs leading into Xmas wknd and will be a travel catastrophe also warrants earlier than normal lead time...never mind potential magnitude.

That is the paradox....we need therapy for our therapy. "Protect me from what I want".

Yea, one and the same. Trend has been to move that more bodily on shore, too...Tip mentioned it yesterday.

Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT) should be a prerequisite for model access on this forum.

Very valid question...correction vector is def. east.

We can still get a decent storm, but that biblical idea that is being thrown about is not happening in our area without that trough axis moving eastward.

We need to shift that whole trough axis east about 150-200mi IMHO.

GEFS still leave a lot on the table, actually....H5 low is still near Montreal. Phase that in down near the BM...then we're talking.

That is still pretty toasty....once you account for those maps being clown fodder, there isn't much at all left for Kev

No issues with that.

That particular run is no sweat off of my crack...at least not at this juncture, however, it pulls that shit next week, then its full-tilt off to the funny farm for Xmas. Santa will be a leaving a prescription for a monthly injection of Abilify in my stocking.

The make it into a meme

I processed this frustration, on the heels of the weekend porking and the several years of awful luck preceding that, earlier this week. I'm onto Friday.

See, I couldn't give two shits about how meteorologically anomalous a system is...if it rains IMBY, then its no different than the other 12343,588348388,4828883 days that have....rained IMBY. Not that anomalous. I don't care that the ULL over Watertown, NY is (insert irrelevant BS number) SD below normal.

At least if it hugs, there is a solid antecedent airmass, so I may still get to toggle with the CF for a while.

Kev is going through what I did on Sunday and Monday.