40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/mild-well-forecast-february-more-wintry.html

Worked great last Wednesday.

I can work with that.

The lobe of the PV....it was phasing in somewhat near NY and PA on last night's GFS...and in the maritimes on the EURO.

I feel as though we are still going to see this shear out unless it phases), just less so than this next one.

I feel like that is likely, but I won't talk it up untill first call.

I didn't see it....I have kids hanging off of me. I though you guys meant it had a cut off

Yea, but its a matter of how much...this is why I said last night that my area is at greatest risk in SNE....CT least risk.

I've been saying that is my concern....if it doesn't phase with the PV in time, then that is the risk. I am rooting for phase at any cost.

Yea...I'm sure fine sacrificing after 50".....my thought is "fuc& that".....sitting at 21.5" after 4 consecutive shitty years.

GFS is over Falmouth...def a little less amped than 00z.

I'd rather the GFS rainer than that.

I feel like we need to thread the needle on timing any PV intreraction. I agree that earlier interaction like 00z OP GFS is rain for many, but you also want it to interact faster than the 00z EURO or QPF will end up an issue for some. I agree with you that if the 00z OP Euro played out, the system would probably get somewhat further N than depicted....but how far?

Yes.

I'm afraid to say it after getting burned by the Tuesday fiasco, but I would not be suprised by a compromise, which would be very good for us.

Which makes sense...most of its skill is within that <day 4 wheelhouse...but this system is not yet there....tomorrow. Big 24 hours.

GFS suite did a much better job with the Tuesday system in the medium range...it had a much better handle on the slightly weaker blocking being displaced to the east along with the 50/50.

Yea, virtual non event here.

Well, it will likely phase at some point, but at what point...even EURO eventually phases it in Maritimes..but not before having it shredded.

If that s stream doesn't phase with the PV lobe, then confluence will stop it at some point if it's close enough....then of course, if it does phase, then we want the timing to be right or else you get a GFS solution. Lots to work out, but there is less risk in CT IMO.

What I am saying is evident in the EPS that is posted.

Well, to be fair, it's easier to feel good about things in CT because you have lesser shot of being porked....you are guaranteed to do well Tuesday, then have less shot of being screwed Friday. I am done for on Tuesday and there is a chance that PV lobe by Maine screws me Friday.

Looks as though there are several 00z EPS members that have that middle ground phasing that annihilates sne.

That PV lobe N of ME is going to be a big problem for someone if EURO is more right....gonna be a sharp cut off with this one like Jan 2016 and Jan 96 (not saying its of that caliber, just prominent examples that people will remember). The N edge of the heavy snow band will be nuclear assuming this doesn't get shredded. The GFS starts phasing the lobe in over PA and NYS, but the EURO has it out ahead more to the NE so that it shunts the system and doesn't phase until the maritimes. Gonna be an interesting model war....a compromise between the two could be very nice if that PV decided to give that southern wave road head near the cape.