40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Wasn't there a big ocean deal in March 1999 that backed up and hit the cape?
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This is why there were so many MJO phase 8 head-fakes, and I would have expected that. If the block somehow fails in March, this is why, but hopefully its weakened enough. One March storm analog to be mindful of from the analog composite is 1984....2001 was much weaker, but could be relevent consider this is weakening quickly.
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One change I will make next season is to incorporate in season ENSO checks...I do it obsessively all fall, and then just abandon it once I issue the outlook. I am going to keep checking it at least into January...beyond that, it doesn't matter as much due to lag. This la nina rapidly evolved into a modoki after having started east-based. Had I not been irresponsibly neglecting ENSO, I would have adjusted faster in season.
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EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28. GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse.
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Yea, that is why I may need to adjust...I really missed that in my first eval. May need to reconsider on Tuesday. What you said about cold exertion offsetting advection really clarified what you mean...my reluctance is that is normally more applicable to the low levels. Maybe across the full profile here...we'll see. -
It really wasn't knock. When I am on the run and looking for an honest assessment, you are one of the posters I look to read for a "no shit" eval. But its not only in shit winters....you even doing in the lead up to impending blizzards. You remind me of messenger in that you are always looking for how the other shoe may drop via subtle trends.
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Hopeful....I'll make one final call on Tuesday.
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I'm just being sarcastic..but remaining unbiased and searching for means of failure are essentially synonyms.
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When you are optimistic, it must be painfully obvious....your baseline is neurotically searching for means of failure lol
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Yea...phase-change event.
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Several sub 980mb lows showing up just east of MA.
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Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending...
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Yay, 3" instead of 1" lol
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I haven't been sleeping much any might these days, so no problem
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Hope you're right...at this juncture, I would rather need to adjust colder, than warmer...that's why I was tame on first call....especially given the mood in the room lol
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It funnels down along the coastal plain on a NE wind to the right of the ORH hills...like a back door front.
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That is in the lower levels and has little impact on snowfall.
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I'm not sure how any times can say no changes are expected in the Pacific. Pretty sure I just said yesterday that winter is over if the arctic fails to deliver.
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Bottom line....don't go through the next 2-3 weeks with the persistence blinders on because there is explosive potential....the atmosphere doesn't give a flying fuc* how much snow did or did not fall in YBY over the past 2 months.
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I'd literally give my left nut to verify member e30 of the EPS with the 952mb over the BM.
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Obviously its a probably a miss, but the trend was positive last night.
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