40/70 Benchmark

Yes to the WAR, but not necessarily a phased powerful system....given the right medium, an NAO block and WAR can create compression/confluence.....which lo and behold, many of these runs do.

1 footish is the ceiling here IMO...its not a HECS. I don't like the attenuation and primary struggles. Not complaining...just how I see it.

CF just se of me IMO

I don't see any compelling reason for much change to my going call later today....we'll see.

+.5" 26"

I picked up 1/2" off fluff on Sunday.

Euro is about 1' west of I 95.

Frustrating day but this remains wide open. Gut says precip type issue coast with MJO phase 7 WAR. Expressed that in new March blog today.

GFS led the way in medium range with both systems.

Boned of different directions for me

Mild & Well Forecast February; More Wintry March Likely The pattern during the month of February overall, was expected to vacillate between a traditional "modoki" la nina like pattern, which is very mild over the east, and a gradient type of pattern. The latter features a pronounced reservoir of cold over the source region despite a lack of blocking, similar to the 1973-1974, 1975-1976, and 2007-2008 seasons. This is precisely what took place. Note the similarity between the MJO filtered forcing and the modoki la nina like regime. This makes sense given that the la nina has actually shifted into more of a modoki event as the season has progressed. Here is the February 1-25 H5 anomaly plot, which is similar to both the modoki and February forecast composite: Versus the forecast February H5 plot: Note the similarities between the actual and forecast save for two differences. Firstly, while there was not expected to be any high latitude blocking this month, the polar vortex ended up even stronger than anticipated, which is likely due to the mid month SSW which will have implications on the pattern during the month of March. Secondly, heights were lower over the southwest than anticipated, likely due to some variations in the western Pacific. Here are the temp anomalies for February 1-23: Versus the February forecast: Note again that while the east coast is mild, as forecast, the southwestern US was cooler than forecast. Finally, here are the actual February 1-23 precipitation anomalies: And the forecast February precipitation anomalies: It was dry over portions of the east and southern California with an active storm track through the Pacific northwest. The monthly teleconnections were all well forecast. The AO and NAO both averaged positive: The extremely positive AO value is not only a reflection of not only the modoki la nina pattern, but also due to the flex of the polar vortex that often takes place during and in the immediate wake of a major disruption, which took place mid month. The initial sign of the disruption manifested itself in the form of a stretched vortex, which is why latter February turned colder across the north. However, the the warming over the polar stratosphere is propagating down to the troposphere. Thus it is likely to induce a pro longed period of high latitude blocking, which is already showing up on guidance for at least the first half of the month of March. Forecast for Blockier and More Wintery March Remains Unchanged The month of March is indeed highly likely to begin as a lion, as one moderate winter storm is likely on Tuesday with the potential for a follow up major system waiting in the wings for Friday. What is a apparent is that a fairly strong NAO block becomes established, which prevents the system from tracking well inland, despite a very deep and negatively tilted trough. The reason for said negative NAO is very evident given the fact that the aforementioned SSW is propagating down to the lower levels. However, while the disturbed PV means that March is unlikely to accrue the positive anomalies that January and February featured, the month is still unlikely to average significant negative temperature anomalies given that the main PV remains on the other side of the globe. This is consistent with both the Eastern Mass Weather forecast composite, which reflects near normal temperature departures: As well as current climate guidance that also has temperatures near normal: CFS forecast March Temp anomalies EURO forecast March temp anomalies: Given that there is high confidence that the month will begin cooler and stormy, the main question is how long said pattern will persist. Given past instances of SSW induced episodes of high latitude, including this past December, the blocking is likely to persist for approximately ten days to two weeks. This is also in accordance with current tropical indicators. Tropical Support for March Blocking Thus far this season, the MJO has been unable to enter phases 8 and 1 for any length of time given the la nina derived standing wave. However, guidance is strongly indicating that that is about to change, perhaps owed to waning la nina and changing wavelengths. There exists strong agreement amongst both the European and GFS guidance that the MJO wave is going to amplify in phase 7 and remain potent as it progresses through phases 8 and 1 during the first half of March. This progression is also evident in the MJO filtered velocity potential forecast, which is a strong indicator of where the forcing (MJO wave) will be positioned. Note that has the pattern peaking during the second week of March, the forcing reaches the dateline, which is congruent with MJO phase 8. This is logical given that the first major winter storm on Friday is going to occur with the MJO in phase 7 and a western atlantic ridge in place, which is why it likely to have precipitation type issues near the coast. But then the pattern is expect to become more favorable for sustained cold when it peaks in phase 8, during the second week of the month. It is reasonable to conclude that this more wintery pattern will persist at the very least through mid March, and there is the potential for longer given the analog of March 1956, which followed a similar progression. March H5 anomaly forecast composite: CFS anomaly forecast composite: European anomaly forecast composite: Stay tuned to Eastern Mass Weather for more on individual storm threats both this week and throughout the month of March.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/mild-well-forecast-february-more-wintry.html Feb was well forecast overall.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/mild-well-forecast-february-more-wintry.html

Worked great last Wednesday.

I can work with that.

The lobe of the PV....it was phasing in somewhat near NY and PA on last night's GFS...and in the maritimes on the EURO.

I feel as though we are still going to see this shear out unless it phases), just less so than this next one.

I feel like that is likely, but I won't talk it up untill first call.

I didn't see it....I have kids hanging off of me. I though you guys meant it had a cut off

Yea, but its a matter of how much...this is why I said last night that my area is at greatest risk in SNE....CT least risk.

I've been saying that is my concern....if it doesn't phase with the PV in time, then that is the risk. I am rooting for phase at any cost.

Yea...I'm sure fine sacrificing after 50".....my thought is "fuc& that".....sitting at 21.5" after 4 consecutive shitty years.

GFS is over Falmouth...def a little less amped than 00z.