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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about the GFS, which has been clueless on this system. Trend is apparent on EPS.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If the trend is done-
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that it hooks in from south of the islands and not south of Long Island...that is where I was saying this was headed as far trend with later capture. WNE just need to hope trend is done.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is realistic IMO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    00z run looked like it had mid level goods west, with lower level deformation maybe with a CF near my area.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Couple ways to look at it because I have had well below average snowfall every season for a half decade, so you could argue my area is "due".....but right, weather doesn't care.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its because the N stream is catching it later, so it hooks into the cape instead of LI now.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have zero interest in Saturday and haven't since last weekend. That said, I realized others to the south are interested, so felt as though the other thread was helpful so I don't need to weed out which posts are relevent to my focus.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which is why I want a delayed capture...this has been the trend.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...that is what this is.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we would need it to trend south into like OH, in that case.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which is what I do not want because it will hook into LI/e MA.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its all about when/if potential capture takes place...often guidance is too fast with it.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    If the N stream interaction is delayed, which has been the trend, then that isn't the case...this is why we see the SLP trending east at 06z, but the parent H5 hanging on longer.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It actually trended a bit negatively with respect to that.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice trend at 06z:
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am rooting for a delayed capture.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't feel as though it is....you headlined the 3/10-15 period, and a more imminent threat has emerged from said period. Even if no threat did emerge, all you can do is flag the potential. As far as the new thread, I just interpreted that as helping to distinguish between Saturday and Tuesday, not that your effort was invalid.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It has.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like I will be near the line.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only on Euro OP
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    UK and EURO each give me 1.5" QPF.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it edged east from 12z.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least its the western outlier.
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