Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    74,804

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect the worst damage to be fairly concentrated near and just to the east of LF.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....also less time for ERC...the only positive is that it won't be a worst case for surge, as ERCs are a vehicle for growth. Later intensification also means less time to pile water. This is potentially a worst case for wind, not surge.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my time-table was off by about 12-24 hours...I shouldn't have dismissed that initial shear, but I am not sure that is a good thing for the coast when all is said and done.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. gonna be using some of your images for my Final thoughts on this for the sake of time, if you don't mind....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    To me, the safe way to interpret that at first glance is to not expect a wall-to-wall terd. Doesn't mean go nuts necessarily....especially with the ONI so high. I think a reasonable floor is more of a 2015-2016 type of outcome in terms of snowfall...as opposed to 97-98 or 72-73.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, "going into September" resonated with me as earlier in the month than later, but okay.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post. Only two issues with my thoughts from late Sunday/early Monday is that I rushed the RI by about 12 hours by underplaying the initial shear a bit, and probably need to adjust west a tad.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cat 4 is like 50/50....def 3.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is quite a dichotomy among the top analogs and it's due to the behavior of the polar domain...this is why I attempted to use the solar cycle and QBO to gain insight into that a couple of week back.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    IR was expected tonight.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe 2002 to a degree...displaced a bit east.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet him...what is the bet?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said the exact same thing in my polar blog a couple of weeks ago...very similar to 2002 and 2009.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, it's not everything...winter could still suck...but its something.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a suprise to snowmen 1-18 and 20+.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to take off. Envt. was always supposed to be marginal during the day Monday.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lots of buns in the main thread right now.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    One saving grace, Larry is that it probably won't have much time to expand.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my first stab at it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/newly-formed-idalia-likely-to-strike.html?m=1
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the links I posted connected to the polar blog entry, rather than the extra tropical Pacific, as advertised.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, extratropical refers to much more than polar. I see what you meant earlier, maybe I posed an incorrect link. This one works. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html?m=1
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It makes sense to me because they don't have time for ERCs and other fluctuations. Most storms don't sustain that intensity for long, so you want rapid spin ups.
×
×
  • Create New...