40/70 Benchmark

The more sunsports, the merrier.

I like our chanes for a -NAO winter right at solar max, right @GaWx?

I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".

TBH, I am relieved that this season looks pretty clear-cut subpar to me because it gives me a chance to dispell some of the "cold/snow" bias that my work has bared out to date. I don't blame people for pointing that out, but its honestly a coincidence. Hopefully my past efforts have been detailed enough where those folks could follow my logic and forecast rationale to see that I wasn't just on a JB binge.

That is a foregone conclusion.

You could argue its central based, but I think that may produce a Modoki like result given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.

This looks to have some Modoki tendencies IMO.

No doubt its coming....just a matter of whether it meets forecast expectations.

Past analogs still have utility, but you need to know how to use them and and thr adjustments to make.

January was okay IMBY.

I have been saying that...QBO is off and solar is deep descending, but I like it....

Honest question...what is your preference, do you like cold and snow in general?

Its always reasonable to question a historic outcome in any regard, except DM warmth.

We can't buy decent timing for highs, either....even if you get the low forced to the west, you can still cash in on the front end with a well timed +pp...but not even being able to get that is just bad luck.

VD 2016 was more severe to your north.

What is interesting is that we are still able to generate severe cold, but rather it is the residence time that is mitigated by CC. Intuiitively speaking it is the former that is more important for major winter storm (blizzard) genesis. We just need the right pattern.

Gonna need a few Hugo like systems to get back on track for that uber-ACE.

Yea, I remember that......that was nuts. Been a few years since we have had frigid wind gusts triggering a temp drop into the single digits during the PM.

Yea, they usually will load west with the -PDO/RNA.

December 2019 had a really nice storm in my area before the season went to hell. Isotherm blew the 2020-2021 foreast and then was never heard from again. Shame.

Easy to see why 2019-2020 was so much worse than 2018-2019.....poleward Aleutian ridge more characteristic of east-based La Nina in the latter and very flat, modoki La Nina like response with a very flat ridge in the former.

An elaborate way of saying "we're due"...agree.

Yes. The reason last season sucked isn't because it was a super-east based el Nino, although the sensible weather result for us was similar, but rather it sucked because the moderate El Nino was vying for proxy with a very hostile extra tropical Pacific and essentially lost. The only real manifestation of El Nino was the active STJ and very wet pattern, but we ended up with that overlayed onto a healthy modoki La Nina type of pattern. This was a more extreme version of what happened in 2018-2019...but that season wasn't as mild and snowless because the Pacific wasn't quite as awful. This is why having a weaker ENSO even isn't neceassarily great news....yes, it means that ENSO won't be so overwhelming that it floods the CONUS with warm air, however, it also means that you are ultimately at the mercy of extra tropical forces, which may or may not be very hostile/favorable. I am willing to bet a more potent el Nino last season would have yieled a better result for us because it would have meant that the Pacific was not as prominent a driver. The forcing for the El Nino was in great spot, which is what led me astray....but it just didn't matter because the MC was driving the bus. This is why incorporating sensible weather into an outlook can help tip you off to issues like that...its like "ground confirmation" for how the forecaster expects the henisphere to play out given the factors at hand.

Yea, it's an adjustment I have made to be more specific and highlight the intended utility of each respective analog....otherwise, you may like an element of a particular season and when you include it in the aggregate seasonal composite, you become involuntarily married to perceived snowfall implications. I think in addition to explicitly stating why you like a specific season, which no one reads, identifying which month you think will bare most resemblance to a given season helps to illustrate it more. For instance, if you think March will be decent, but the season will still suck..... you can include 2018 for March, yet drop seasons like 2002 and 2012 in January and February to guard against folks just focusing on 2018 and interpret that as the forecaster going for a huge season.

Yea, they run high...I was 95, which I think is more representative of the hot spots.