40/70 Benchmark

Stand by for a series of tweets featuring Paul Roundy wiping his rear with the 1925-1926 analog lol

#allabouttheforcing

1925-1926 featured average snowfall in Boston and above average snowfall from NYC through the mid atlantic...not a blockbuster, but a good season. This is actually about what I said that I expected....a colder version of 2015-2016.

LOL I honestly wasn't trying to be a jerk...just providing context. I would have posted if it was warm, but it just illustrated my point that its all about the forcing and not necessarily the SSTs.

One thing I have mentioned is that there is greater variability amongst both weaker and basin-wide events....its all about the location of the forcing, which is less impressive in modest events and thus we are often reliant on extra tropical influences to decide the season's fate.

Whopper of a snow event around here 12/5/03. January 2004 was probably the most brutally cold month that I can recall around here, but it was mainly dry.

You were the first on this that I can recall.

This is why I think my outlooks blew chunks in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

Yes.

You are also neglecting to consider the surrounding globe and seem to focused on el nino in a vacuum. The fact that the global waters are so anomalously warm means that the el nino will not be as strong as ostensibly suggested by the ONI and forcing will likely be displaced westward due to the pull of the w pac. Guidance reflects this in the vertical velocity potential and OLR progs. It goes both ways...this is why the meager 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina and why last season's la nina was more impactful around the globe than ONI would imply. You can't be a Bill Belicheck in seasonal forecasting....you need to evolve and adapt to the changing times.

I don't see why anyone should care what the el nino distribution looks like during the fall....sure, there is a lag, but I feel like some people exaggerate that. La nina looked great last November....tilted east, then it flipped into December and we had a very mild, classic modoki la nina season.

I posted the 2m temp and precip maps...near normal to a hair above temps and near normal to hair above precip. You stated "December through February would probably suck". I don't agree with your interpretation.

Yea, IDK Jerry....to be blunt, I don't agree with much of any of what you have had to say over the past month or two. Doesn't mean you are wrong, but I think you are wrong about the interpretation of the JMA guidance, at the very least.

1.29" today here.. heaviest missed me for once.

Hopefully some posts from Tip next week about exiting the solar max to get me through this.

There are other risk factors, like living on a slope...

Kev and Scott must be in their glory with intense dews for as far as the eye can see.

Paul loves using analogs from the civil war era.

Why don't you look at the EMI forecast from Jamestec?

I will probably do better, too....40.5" last year. I had around that in '97'98 and '72-'73, which are the worst case sceanrios.

Toss statisticals... just getting a clue.

Shunt away.

Absolutely correct...just my best estimate.