40/70 Benchmark

I think we are going to see a run of +NAO again after the next solar max, unless we see a potent modoki el nino,...Pacific should improve, though....could fathom another stretch like 2013-2015, minus the 100" in 30 days for Boston lol

I'm writing it up right now.

Yes, because we have often discussed how the movement of the NAO is more important for storm diagnostics than the mode. I am finding the same is true with respect to the solar cycle as a predictor of the wintertime polar domain. This is because its not so much linked by the drivers that we use to define the solar min and max, such as UV, total soler irradiance and sunspots, but rather geomagnetic activity and solar wind that are more linked with the behavior of the polar fields. These peak during solar flux, which lags AFTER solar max by a few years.

If the forcing doesn't change, I can assure you he will be.

Please verify.

1) That el nino never really materialized 2) Solar activity was descending, which is much more unfavorable than the ascending portion of the cycle.

Haven't you been communicating modeled 2.0+ peaks now for months?

There are also some cases where ENSO can override, like 2011-2012, 1997-1998 and 2002-2003.

This clears up why some seasons approaching solar max like 1957-1958 and 2014-2015 were great and why 18-19 and 19-20 near solar min were duds.

@Typhoon TipReading up a lot on solar modulation of the polar domain and the relationship actually harkens back to the Archambault research in that its more about modularity, rather than mode...ie its about whether or not we are descending or ascending, as max vs min isn't a huge deal. Interesting- Working on a write up regarding the possible behavior of the polar domain this season because that is where the answers will be found.

Well, that is the thing...the forcing really isn't associated with it right now. MEI, RONI nor forcing currently portend a classic, east-base super el nino. Look back at every super el nino event and see where MEI,etc were as of June-July...not even close. Its not crazy to think that the residual la nina/war west PAC regime will alter things to a degree.

ENSO is indicative of a classic, east based super el nino....but the globe isn't.....nor is the west PAC. This is conveyed by both the RONI and MEI.

Yes, like I said....can totally change. Just saying how it looks now.

In terms of SST configuration, I agree; however, some of these vp plots appear very modoki ish.

Right.....what is the difference? The forcing.....if it shifts east, winter will be a toaster bath again....but if it doesn't, like most guidance suggests, then we should do at least okay and perhaps very well. Too much obsession over the SST pattern when it isn't congruent with what the atmosphere is actually doing. Again, can that change? Sure. I will say, most guidance had la nina remaining basin-wide with an eastward tilt into November of last season and were still wrong...so, I am not trying to imply that consensus can't be wrong, especially at this stage. This can still easily go either way at this stage...breaking news, I know.

Yikes. Enough of this season....

Through June and first half of July I was ground zero...then it split N and S of me for a few weeks, but now jack is back.

Bullseye was actually about 5-7"mi south of me...through KLWM and N Andover

The why do you have your mind made up that this winter will be awful?

4.01" here on the day.

Probably...winters descending from a solar max usually suck when coupled w a westerly QBO.

Because the ONI reading belies the true intensity of the el nino if the hemispheric gradient is weaker....what you are saying is akin to asking how a 984mb low can be associated with a stronger storm than a 968mb low...the answer has to the with so the pattern upstream....maybe the 984mb low has a 1058mb high over Minnesota (blizzard of 1978), and in the case of the 968mb low, there is a 1022mb high. Same thing goes with hurricanes....it depends on ambient envt. because that is part of the overall system....one storm maybe a cat 5 with a 930mb minimum central pressure, and another a cat 3. You can generalize ENSO events by ONI, nor storms by minimum central pressure....yes, there is a correlation with intensity, but its imperfect because there are other factors at play. ENSO is a complex, multifaceted system of oscillations between seal level pressure, ocean currents and wind across the hemisphere that can't be fully captured by one index...more to it than that.

You wonder if the ensuing winter will be impacted by the tenaciously residual cool ENSO atmospheric imprint in much the same manner that the 1995-1996 la nina was by the residual warm ENSO imprint. In 1995-1996, we observed the el nino like active STJ, whereas this season we could see a residual pull west of the seasonal forcing that may look like a compromise between last season and a traditional canonical el nino forcing regime...the end result would be a modoki like forcing signature (near the dateline) overlaid over a robust, basin-wide warm ENSO SST configuration. Interesting. Back to regularly scheduled super el nino tweets.

Strongest indicator of what, ultimate ENSO peak?