40/70 Benchmark

Don't forget.....global warming is impacting nighttime lows much more than it is daytime highs, as well....so 1-2F above average at this latitude really isn't a big deal.

I think some people see the deep red and expect last year...that isn't what it means. It just means they are relatively confident that it will be somewhat above normal...which isn't saying that much.

You aren't getting my point. I am speaking of temperature relative to other regions...not absolute temperature. "More than some"...what does that even mean? I'm sorry, the NE being the warmest part of the country over the past several years has nothing to do with global warming AFAIC. The NE being warmer than the NE was two decades ago? Sure.

Obviously some of this is due to the warming background.....but @ORH_wxman has pointed out that the NE being warmer than everyone else means we are also due for some colder regression in this area relative to other regions.

I'll take the under on 2015-2016 temps.

Certainly, more opportunities than mid September...and last winter.

Peaked early on in SO at .80, then neutralized for winter.

THE SINGLE most important element in seasonal forecasting is the ability of the forecaster to fully appreciate that no single atmospheric driver operates in a vacuum or independent from other variables. The atmosphere is the most elaborate and synergic entity that this world will ever know. I feel like many struggle with this concept as it pertains to ENSO, as our society as cultivated a strong fixation on ONI and region 3.4. At the end of the day, what happens around region 3.4 is every bit as integral a piece to the seasonal puzzle as what happens within those waters. This winter will provide a splendid illustration of this.

I'm not expecting anything obscene up here....but after last season, it will be a breath of fresh air. In the mid Atlantic, all bets are off-

I think it may flip.

I agree with you. I don't expect a frigid winter.

Well, it's like having a 961mb low with a 1000mb high...people like you will oil themselves up and have alone time over the pretty 961mb low, while ignoring upstream. Impressive, sure, but the overall system isn't all that anomalous.

I honestly couldn't care less. That said, it should be warmer than average...but I don't care if I only radiate down to 21 instead 17 on clear nights....as long as its 31 when it counts.

Total agreement.

Couple this with the residual cold ENSO/Pacific and wonder if the N stream storm influence this coming winter is being underplayed right now. The RONI and MEI should eventually edge into moderate territory, though.

Funny you make this point because in my blog post today, I likened this event to the weak composite and chose not to with respect to the modoki composite because that has some healthier events in it. This is just weak sauce right now....its essentially weak and my sensible weather composite bares that out...echoes the MEI and RONI.

Yikes, Merrimack plunge if this were winter

This in a nutshell is why the MEI, RONI and forcing pattern look different from past intense events.

High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather

High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather

I have started using sensible weather analogs by ENSO state...its a good way to keep the forecast composite "honest" becuase I have years like 1982 and 2015 in there, which I know damn well are to strong for ENSO....but they are decent matches the pattern.

One thing to keep an eye on is that it looks as though guidance has continued to rush the progression of warmer waters to the west throughout the summer and into the fall....IE a positive bias with respect to the EMI.

1957, 1965 and 1991 seems like good ONI analogs.....with 1994 and 2015 being the best EMI analogs. Of course, RONI and MEI are another story altogether.

I could see OND...like the statistical mean. But if you feel strongly, then go with your gut....I just use guidance and historical benchmarks, as I am certainly no expert on tropical Pacific weather patterns. But I feel like the late start (region 3.4) may be a red flag against a fast peak.