40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Season it pretty much going as planned, so far....disturbed polar domain with -PDO...hopefully it yields some decent results as expected. -
Its the obsession over the tendency for blocks to be displaced southward....while its important to remain mindful of it, you need to be careful about dismissing the notion of blocking and assuming that will continue to be the case moving forward.
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Yea...perception....look at all of the people bashing the models on social media last night and today...most from southern PA, MD and NJ/NYC.
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Well, that's arousing...
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Maybe? Kinda? Sorta?
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I don't anticipate large scale changes from the Wednesday AM map.
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I meant aside from Kevin...like Scott and Will, for instance.
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Coastal NE looks to do pretty well. Your post is otherwise reasonable, but you seem to go to great lengths to marginalize the fact that many areas are seeing a significant snowstorm. Imperfect scenarios yield snowfall quite often in any given winter...just like reasonably good patterns yield nothing in bad ones, like last season (March).
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To be fair, I haven't been looking long term much this week with the impending storm. The PNA not responding as hoped/expected is more of a risk than a strong PV, agreed....I guess if that were to happen, then hope you are far enough north to avail of the blocking.
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Well, "hard to get to normal" isn't necessarily ratter.
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I think they mean that in the really good seasons, you will catch some breaks in an imperfect stretch...so you have the "tenor" of the winter to consider, as well as the simple fact that it makes it easier to have a good season mathematically speaking because there is less ground for February to make up from a climatological snowfall standpoint.
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I'm just breaking your balls lol Nothing unreasonable about that.
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I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol
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Not really when you consider this wasn't a large scale event deeply rooted in a long wave signal...this is the type of system where little idiosyncrasies with respect to SW interactions have disproportionately large results on sensible appeal for many areas.
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I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with me while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.
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This is why NWS remains conservative until the last possible moment....there are subtle ebbs and flows in guidance that have relatively large impacts on sensible results and are not worth compromising consistency until very late in the game.
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Stunning that hopes for a foot+ event hinging on a last second hail mary of a SW capture didn't pan out...I am just floored. This has always looked like a nice, moderate snow....random higher end suites not withstanding.
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He takes kernels of truth and throws them into a blender.
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Will implied that week is crucial to how the winter will be perceived ie reaching the season's ceiling and I would agree. Its not necessary to avoid a ratter.
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Okay...yea, probably....I think my huge window begins on January 22 through 2/5, so....I don't expect any big dumps prior....hopefully we get lucky with something.
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There is a progression, though....it doesn't just appear over us via osmosis....it needs to move in and then move out. You know damn well the favored periods for large systems are during intervals of mass flux. Man, imagine how many weenies would be force fed anyone daring to project excitement over an hour 360 map showing a blizzard.
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So do I.....maybe the PV unceremoniously swings east and its cold and dry, but there is also a chance it drops into a decent SW.
