40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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No, that is the point....what good would the ensemble mean be if that were the case? Sometimes it is, especially at less lead time, but the point of the perturbed members is to detect the degree of variance within the realm of physically plausible solutions and determine whether or not the OP makes sense.
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That makes sense to me with a -PNA and -NAO.
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I don't agree at all. That looks like a SWFE/revedeveloper pattern....look how the cape does better than much of CT.
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Because the OP is essentially another ensemble member.....all the ensembles are is runs with slightly perturbed initial conditions.
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Last March would have been perfect even with a medium -PNA, but that west coast trough was historic.
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These are the kind of developments I was banking on to salvage a respectable season....we didn't have this in the awful el Nino seasons.
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Well, 2018-2019 didn't have much NAO, but last year it certainly did. 2018-2019 had a big -EPO, but we kept getting cutters.
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You can really see the SWFE configuration to the snowfall gradient with the blocking forcing more redevelopment to the NE.....Taunton>Tolland?
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Looks like Jan 2003 snow cover map.
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How do you figure ENSO/opposite phase PDO is an indicator of EPO/WPO? -
Maybe it goes back to shit, but this is the exact point that I have been insisting would distinguish this season from terds like 1973. At least one of these should work.
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It's a 24 hour miracle!!
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We should catch one before it warms up again.
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We won't have a 2.0 ONI.
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Makes sense to get a SWFE in Maritime phases....invoke some 2008.
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I bet one of these works out.
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I saw a heart and instantly knew it was @Allsnowwho had like that lol
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Yea, but now he is GHOST.
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This is how I view it, but we'll see.
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Yea, that was a another Pacific cold phase stretch.
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I wish Bluewave would make seasonal efforts....that pains me as much as Isotherm going mute.
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I would say they have been better, but I feel like some have the impression I was forecasting a 2002-2003, 2009-2010 redux and that isn't true. As far as February being in trouble, it will take more than the weeklies to convince me of that, as they have been crap....but if that were to happen, then that would effectively sink my outlook.
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I think my December call was okay....my only regret is not including 2015 as an analog for December, however, I doubled up on it for January.
