40/70 Benchmark

Dec 2019 N of pike and inland.

Well, you don't have to tell me how lucky se MA has been. I haven't sniffed normal snowfall in 6 years. I don't even think I pulled that off in the 80s...but the rats were worse. I have avoided any real abysmal rats in this stretch.

Well, I think we are in an 80's stretch now...sure, we had Jan 2022, just like we had December 1981, Feb 1983, March 1984 and January 1987....hell, I think there was even a cape blizzard in like 1989.

Agree!!!

Well, it goes both ways...I think CC is also tied into this, not just warmer weather and steeper gradients.

Closest system we have had to it was Feb 2013...shifted sw a bit.

1717?

Luke likes to see that.

Seems to be a good trend from 00z on the GEFS.

Jan '96 was good where I was in Wilmington...about 18", but where I am now it was a nightmare...sharp gradient to like 5" of sand.

OR NSATT

Yes...1978 is a more valid analog in that regard, not that we are getting 2-3'.

For 20-dollah? If only...get the student loan apps ready, kids-

Hi, me Ray....I like snow long time. Me see snow?

I did not, only because I didn't expect the DM PNA or NAO to be as severely negative, but there are aspects of that season that I like, certainly. Not surprised. I just felt like that year was a more extreme version of what we are seeing this year in the aggregate.

Trust me, I didn't notice lol...basically what I was getting at was lower se heights and the velocity decreases. A more stout PNA rice should accomplish that.

# 10 isn't bad, either.

Just need to close that off about 6 hours sooner. I could see it was being captured just by the surface depiction that was posted.

I have said this before, but the "slow crawl" crap doesn't really do much for amounts...it just gives Kevin fuel for his "days and days" rhetoric, but the good news is that he'll do it, regardless. The intense dynamics are exhausted within 12-18 hours, anyway in about 98% of systems.

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

That looks like its in the process of being captured.

Hey John, How is this issue mitigated? Would a larger PNA spike lower southeast heights? I would think a large enough PNA ridge increase would trigger a "tipping point" whereas more energy is conserved and a historic solution bursts into existence....

I do think he is brilliant, but at the end of the day we are all here to learn from one another. I'm not sure why he posts here if he is so paranoid about someone copying his work...nevermind the fact that he makes it a point to release a month before everyone else. Why would I write so much and not make a single cent from doing so just to copy somebody's composite maps...lol It makes zero sense. Funniest part is if I had used all +PDO analogs he would have called me an idiot...use -PDO analogs and I have copied him. Interesting guy.