40/70 Benchmark

"F" https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/thought-on-great-forecasting-debacle-of.html

Its easy to hide behind the vale of anonymitity in an impersonal mode of communication. But its tougher to look someone in the eye and be an ass because doing so is more unpleasant.

I may grab an inch.

Man, even @Allsnowweenied you on that..you know it was a low-blow.

Yea, its about cognitive skills...they are all intertwined and intra supportive (or not) of one another...for instance, distress tolerance is one cognitive skill that really factors into impulse control. If you have the ability to sit with an unpleasant thought/emotion and tolerate it, then you are better equipped to allow it to pass without acting on it. Less distress tolerance, then you will act out. Acceptance is another...the ability to accept an unpleasant reality and not waste energy ruminating on it. You can see how I could make a fortune running a weather weenie DTB clinic DBT packages all of these skills into a nice, neat little box with a bow on it.

Hopefully we get 2/24 to workout, or else I'll be spending my draft in an intensive, inpatient DBT clinic.

Well, we all have them...but some are better equipped to have the brain filter them out...myriad of different reasons why the defectis may exist, but in a general sense....IQ and mental illness due to genetics and lifestyle (addiction history lends itself to increased pulsivity).

I am totally guilty of it. Despite the insight, my emotions still get ahead of my brain....my postualation is that road rage and cyber bullying are positively correlated because its the same population that would have an issue with both...defecits in emotional regulation and impulse control. Social media/internet is probably not helping with incidence of road rage, among other negative outcomes/MH issues in society..hint, hint.

Its synonymous with driving in that respect...its easier to act like an ass on the road and behind the keyboard.

Model is kind of hit or miss....it put on an absolute clinic in that one 1/7 pasting up here, but it was sent to the glue factor yesterday. Funny thing is I probably would have bought the EURO bailing on yesterday if the HRRR hadn't nailed my 1/7 jackpot.

Good rule of life that hardly ever fails...there is always a reason why some try to push you down and its usually to prop themselves up. The truely healthy individuals do not feel the need to do that to anyone because they already value themselves.

Yes.

Its such a worthwhile endeavor because its such a great avenue for personal enrichment...regardless of outcome. Sure, you get some people that shit on you when you are wrong, but its normally 2 types of people and its inwardly driven. 1) People who also partake in the effort themselves, and are either very insecure and/or dissatisfied with a certain aspect(s) of their own lives and project that onto my effort instead of the mirror. 2) People who would like to engage in the effort themselves as the ultimate means of expression and undersanding of their life long passion. But alas, just can not get over the ambivalence barrier to committing to such an effort, and reconicle that fact by resenting the efforts of those who do so out resentment and subconcious envy.

I disagree....there is more skill involved in that. The snowfall rages, as fun as they are, is largely luck.

The high of being right coupled with the joy of the experience of the snow is awesome. Right....but its frustrating when you miss.

If its on Saturday, then fine...but I am out on any more nusiance varitety stuff during the week. I am at the point where it just like "get out of my face with that shit".

To be perfectly honest, the snowfall stuff has a lot of luck involved.....I honestly feel like my past couple of efforts have been better than some of my "hits" in terms of snowfall earlier in my "career". Last year, I think I hit just about every index for the DM period wintin .30.....but since it didn't snow, its viewed as a bust. Will need to wait for the end to know, but this year is along the same lines, though admittedly it will be much warmer than I had. However, its been much warmer than every issued outlook I have seen...even raindance. Sure, you will have people claiming to have "nailed" it pulling up a random quote from October, but I only count published efforts. Its difficult to forecast an extreme anomaly on a seasonal scale that are usually derived from a composite of analogs. This is why you don't normally see exceedingly low pressures on a day 10 ensemble mean.

I need 11.5" to catch last season.

I was/am/have been dead serious.

I could get 18" of snowfall, and this winter would still be just on par with the super, 1997-1998 non-winter el Nino. Think about that- A 30"-spot would put me on par with the 1982-1983 super el Nino...and this year has had more blocking than both. I need about 9" to catch 1973 and 7.5" for 2016.

I won't be suprised either way...on the one hand, this is the decade of what can do wrong, does. But on the other hand, I have a tough time buying that I finish under 40" in a basin-wide el Nino that is not prohibitively strong and featured a good deal of blocking.

At least they invest in the on field product, as misquided as the allocation of said resources may be. I'll trade you Henry for Cohen and an immense decadal snowfall defecit to be named later?

The initialization grid would consist of a dozen donuts and a grimey Mets cap.

Of course March will be the one month I nail with surgical precision....take that to the bank.

I have no issue with that particular edition of the weekly product, though..verification scroes not withstanding, that is reflective of my thoughts on March dating back to last fall. Winter is over after one more swing at the winter-blitz KU pinata, save a rogue bowling ball- Then its onto the draft and post seasonal eval in May for me.