40/70 Benchmark

Kev's concerns were valid....I suspected the drier interval would be more confiened to the first half of the month. Butttt....nope. NSI index remains positive.

Exactly. Gladly take the rain.

Not in the manner many speculated, which was a strong PV....I correctly called BS on that last summer and wrote a post as to why. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html

Sensible weather matches earlier in the year.

This is what is frustrating me to know end....still the snowfall and even temps were so far off. I need to: 1) Do a better job reflecting CC in my interpretation of how composite seasonal forecasts will trasnlate to sensible weather. 2) Garner a better grasp of the extra tropical Pacific and account for it better.

I measured the analog composite against 1951-2010 climo period for comparison to this season in order to account for climate change...otherwise, measuring this year against analogs several decades old yields an unrepresentative volume of higher heights.

Let me know what you guys think...here is what I had for DM vs reality through 2/19:

Its like I was saying to Will yesterday, the issue is we need some large tropical impetus to shake up this stable hemispheric alignment that features an extra tropical Pacific that is very hostile to ne US snowfall. My guess is that an immensely active tropical season followed up by a healthy La Nina could do it....much like the massive El Nino in 2016 realigned what had been a very favorable extra tropical Pacific for ne US snowfall. I failed to recognize this in my past couple of outlooks, which is why correctly forecasting the polar domain was useless as it relates to the snowfall forecast. These failed efforts have taught me that high latitude blocking is not as proiminent a driver as I had perceived.

If something becomes imminent, then I'll be all in..unlikely, but possible. But I am done chasing long range pots of gold over the other side of the rainbow this season. Take your SSW and suddenly shove it stratospherically far up your brown vortex-

I am eager. Just wipe the slate and this season clean.

Its 1-2"...tops.

Whenever you see @dryslotahead of me in the post count for a storm thread, you know all that you need to know about said threat.

The correlation with ACE only works during La Nina winter seasons, according to Raindance. It looks like next year should at least approach normal snowfall for the region, assuming a high ACE, even with like a 1998 scenario.

I think we found Tip a love connection

I'm just simply resigened to the fact that it just isn't plausible for any physical mechanism to trigger anything desirable to those on the east coast for the balance of this season.

Likewise.

The bed sheets in Ayer or the undies in Tolland?

May not have been wise to let it expire now that he's nearly 50 and they are the same age.

Who knows, if the tropical season is uber-active, we could get the added bonus and have a decent winter next season.

Something will balance out the Pacific eventually....the super El Nino of 2016 was the impetus to correct that crazy 2015 western ridging that brought the 100" in 30 days to Boston.....and as many have pointed out, we have been stuck with that western warm pool ever since. Maybe the tropics in conjunction with the emergent La Nina flip it this year...who knows. But I am betting on mother nature finding a way, CC be damned.

Minute man?

It helps to offset that when its so cold that everything that does fall is snow from RIC points northward. There was also plenty of luck, too, I'm sure.

Wow.....that will be cool.

You need humility....I have learned that, though I can still certainly be overbearing at times...I know. Work in progress, like everything else.