40/70 Benchmark

Same page...included exactly this in my write up.

Final Call High Impact-Short Duration Winter Storm on Tuesday Expect High Volume of Cancellations There have been major changes to the forecast since First Call issued on Thursday, which is not unexpected given that long of a lead time. It now appears as though this storm system will have a severe, and multifaceted impact on the region during an interval of time focused on mid day Tuesday. Brief blizzard conditions and near white out possible in the most prolific banding, Synoptic Overview: Previously it had appeared as though the storm system slated for Tuesday would be primarily an issue for the hills of Worcester county and the Berkshires, since the northern stream energy that would supply the cold air and reinvigorate the storm system looked to feed in too late, after the system had passed. However, while the bulk of the northern energy still looks to phase in after the system has moved towards the Canadian Maritimes, it now looks as though the approaching northern stream disturbance will force the approaching southern stream system just far enough to the south to still produce a major snowfall across the area despite a marginally cold airmass. The approach of the northern stream energy will induce redevelopment of the southern stream disturbance along the east coast just as the very warm airmass from this weekend is replaced with more seasonable air. While it will ultimately be cold enough for snowfall even to the coast after perhaps an initial period of rain, the marginal airmass will act to limit accumulations to a degree. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Precipitation should move into all of southern New England by the AM commute on Tuesday, perhaps as a mix or even rain along the south coast, southeastern Mass and cape cod and islands. The precipitation will quickly become heavy as any mixed precipitation or rain transitions to snow with the height of the storm being around midday. The heaviest banding should focus underneath the strongest lift, just to the north of the track of the 700mb low pressure area. With locally up to 18" possible over the higher terrain of this zone, over the south-central Worcester hills, as well as the hills of northeastern and northwestern Connecticut. In addition to the heavy snowfall and near blizzard conditions possible at times, the 1:45pm high tide cycle will be accompanied by coastal flooding on east-facing beaches, as gale forced winds batter the coastline. Then the snow and wind should taper off during the evening commute on Tuesday, which should be essentially non-existent, anyway. FINAL CALL:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/final-call-for-high-impact-short.html

Toss globals IMO...pause for MBY, but not most of SNE.

I think it will correct northward a bit.

I'm not convinced I don't make the best banding.

Just saying, its a slippry slope when we start rideculing incorrect calls on a weather forum, but I get some of this past antics. He's attacked me.

Could be a painful one for me...should sleep at my sister's in Wilmington tonight lol

That was an incredible discussion.

To be fair, he admitted that wouldn't work out a long time ago...kind of a dick move to do that after someone owns it.

I just want out, at this point. Fire up the draft.

Golly, gee whillickers....I sure am grateful for that.

Take my outlook and wipe your ass with it for February....sure, pattern looks good, but I just don't see it working out.

No. March 2003 was pretty mild, no?

Party on Bill's 6 rings boat.

Its really not a bad thing...if nothing else, you are very objective.

Okay...here goes. Gonna give this my best shot and post in a coupe of hours. Pray for me.

@STILL N OF PIKE's purpose for existence is to seek out what can go wrong and meticulously analyze it....posters are like models. You learn their biases and proclivities in order to apply the proper lens/context.

Knowing him, that is sarcastic, though.

Wonder if the EPS will be north...

I agree....not IMBY thing. I am in trouble either way, maybe....but I mean in general.

Rest of the month looks lame, too.

I have never seen anything like that....guess I work tomorrow. I honestly think the short range models need to be hugged.

Unreal....this winter can eat me now.

Well, if you want the blog, its your's, I guess.