40/70 Benchmark

It feels good to give in and have weenies replaced by heart emojis from the warm crew...I could get use to this for next year.

Move on and hand out some parking tickets.

It obviously wouldn't help alter the Pacific SSTs....that is more of an infuence with respect to the extra tropical atmosphere to favor more ridgin over the western CONUS and troughing east. You can see it clear as day in Raindance's data.

Its affecting everything...absolutely.

Yea, no argument from me on that for March. Looks toasty here.

I thought it was Tip

There aren't many in my life worse than this one...top of head: 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 2001-2002 and 2011-2012 Honorable Mention for 1998-1999 and 1999-2000

We do.

It's one thing to be have insight into CC, it's another entirely to correctly account for it in a seasonal forecast. The latter is my issue....not in denial about anything.

We could have had a big storm or two with some luck IMO.

I'm not sure how you could forecast something that extreme at a seasonal level.

Exactly. Goes to show not only how warm it was, but how unlucky we were.

You don't know anything until you realize how little you know.

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope to a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most. Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.

I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.

The way things have been going, we will. But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not. Agreed on active....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter.

I am 10.5" shy of last year....but honestly, I would take this year due to Jan 7....keep the extra 10.5" that likely feel over 8 seperate 2-hour commutes in February and March.

Honestly, if I had realized the blocking would have been ABSOLUTELY trivial, then 1972-1973 would have been my top analog. I doubled up on it, as it was.

Completely shut out in December and under 3" in February here on the NH border. Un-fucking-real.

You know it was an abysmal El Nino when I have under 3" for the month of February.....that maybe the worst ever during an El Nino...even 1995 had a 12" event that first week. I never, in my most vivid nightmares, anticipated that.

Yea, I am moving on with one eye open for a rogue deal. Another failed effort on my part in terms of sensible results.

The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-2 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow