40/70 Benchmark

If anything, I think there may be less recurves than typical this year.

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know. Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

Hope Allison and the kids are off getting ice cream

Hit 81 yesterday.

Yea, no argument there. Like I said, the indexes do not necessirly encompass the ideal domain space to maximixe the correlation to our weather, but I just forecast and report the calculated numbers in addition to the actual sensible weather and H5 pattern.

I really don't see much of a path to a nice season south of New England (save for one rogue, large event), assuming we are right about the NAO/PDO.....New England, especially north of the CT/RI borders, can sneak by if there is a ton of cold in se Canada and the PV is positioned correctly.

They have had some awful years by their standards...I mean, if you are going to judge it my Maryland climo, then never.

We defenitely need to see what the ACE does, though before resigning ourselves to another full-on catastrophe. 1988 was a normal ACE year and we should top that, but lets see how it plays out. 2007 was also near normal, but 1998 was very active....181.7

Why do you feel that is the case? Strength/positioning of the subtropical ridge?

Makes sense to me. How do you feel about 2007 as an analog? Obviously I don't expect quite that much snow in NNE, but I could see that type of pattern qualitatively speaking. QBO will be a poor match, but that wasn't a blocky season, anyway. I think we all agree there shouldn't be much blocking next season.

I don't think it's that low....2017-2018 was very good and 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 were okay.

Yea, well the calculation is what it is. I did note the westward displacement of the PNA.

Reminds me of 2022-2023.

Honestly, though.....A near record ACE seems to be the only way out of another torpedo DM period, and even then....maybe just servicable. 1998 was pretty active in terms of ACE and it still sucked. I imagine the ceiling could be something like a 2007-2008 outcome, where there is an ample reservoir of cold over eastern Canada via an elongated PV, but there is a sharp gradient due to a se ridge adjoining.

Just pick another death-knell for the northeast and play it safe-

That analog has been my early favorite. It will be nice to have a fall where I am not bickering with you every day

Well, I don't think AGW is why Arctic sea ice and SCE are not considered silver bullets of seasonal forecasting. As far as the run of crap winters, AGW has to be a factor, but the weather patterns have also just sucked for NE snow and cold...other parts of the globe and country have done fine. But no question that that the fact that we are seemingly haveing a "warmest winter on record" world wide each year is due to CC.

I think there is a much better shot of a more moderate La Nina than a positive PDO.

I would expect the PDO to be negative again, but we'll see.

While I think this is generally true, my work was more flawed than I implied here. Here is the post analysis. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

I agree in general, but I think we are a year or two off from peaking with respect to this. Here is my wrap up from last year. I was right about the forcing, but completely wrong about the implications of it....did not matter one bit. West Pacific drove the bus, which is why I think @bluewavenailed it with respect to articulating the disconnect between the ONI and RONI/MEI as reflective of "competing forces". And unfortunately for NE US snow lovers, all of the forces that competed with and overcame ENSO were in the west Pacific and were evil ones. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Just saying....+NAO is most correlated with an increase in geomagnetic particles and solar wind, which peak in the few years following solar max. Regardless, I agree next winter looks mild again.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html