40/70 Benchmark

80.6 IMBY

Yup. I think you and I are on the same page for once.....but you never know, even if the season is awful you can get lucky with a pattern(s).

I was commenting to Scott like a month ago....Manchester, NH seems to be the heat capital of NE...stretching down into Nashua at the south end of the MRV basin. Maybe include my area, too, but I would favor a touch NW since I am vulnerable to a bit of marine influence here.

I was 66 Monday night....72 last night. I should make the high 90s today considering it was 95 yesterday.

A lot of those seasons weren't awful for snowfall in SNE...but year, should be warm (shock)...

We didn't have much heat last summer and winter was still awful.....Pacific will be the main driver, so yea...winter will suck again.

Track record not great at 6 hours.

65.8/95.4 today

I'm surprised Alberto isn't retired after that epic flooding it created in 1994...I remember that. It was brutal.

Differences from last year can't be a bad thing as it relates to next winter.

Happy Father's Day, boys.

About what I expect.

Incoming here in Chelsea....gonna focus on safety.

I think I was pretty careful with the way I articulated this.....I did say "more of a concern for the mid atl", not "SNE is in the clear". As far as your basic point, everyone in the east has resembled climo of locales further south because the past several seasons have sucked....not sure of your point, unless you are implying that this is the new norm. I think 8 years is a bit premature, but I am on record as saying I will entertain that if we get into the next decade and still in this regime. Reglardless, snowfall regression should have been expected after the bonanza last decade along the east coast. I stand by my assertion that SNE still gets more snow from the N stream than the STJ, regardless of how warm it has been.

Don't get me wrong, though....I don't mean to imply that this winter looks particularly promising for NE, either.....just not as dire as further south.

That is more of a concern for the mid atl....most snowfall in NE comes from the northern stream.

That is usually how it works in the mid atlantic since you average so little snowfall on an annual basis.....often times one storm comprises most of a season's snowfall and often that season will significantly increase the seasonal average for the decade.

I don't think it really matters whether ONI is weak or not...I expect a moderate impact event. RONI sneaking into marginally strong territory shouldn't profoundly alter that, either. What this means is that the extra tropical atmosphere should have some relevence in terms of dictating the predominate hemispheric pattern this winter, since ENSO will not be overwhelming. However, I also expect the extra tropical atmosphere to largely be congruent with the tropics, anyway, so we may still end up with a rather robust la Nina outcome in terms of sensible weather.

I would have said that I wouldn't be at all suprised by that even if you had sked me 5 years ago....independent of CC just due to simple regression.

What is the supposed relationship between sea ice and mid latitude winter? I don't really use that and can't seem to recall...thanks.

Good episode...love TWZ. I am camped out watching that every NYE and NYD.

IDK....literally the only thing I can say is that it was modest La Nina, but other than that....not so much. That season is a poor match in every respect.

I think we all understand the caveats with using analogs at this point...yep.

I also wouldn't chalk up the volcanic stuff as a certain negative, either....possible, sure. But we went through this last year and I correctly dispelled it then, even though winter was still warm due to the Pacific. We had some blocking...

Only thing I will say is that we were already past that theorized 2015 "tipping point" that accompanied that uber el nino.....which is probably why even that season managed the uber-warm February in advance of/during the SSW. But I agree with the premise that 2017 is not a good analog.