40/70 Benchmark

Look at all of the other super El Niños......you had the strong west-east dipole across the Pacific in terms of SSTs and pressure, which produced much stronger WWBs. That whole system was much less pronounced last year, which is reflective of a more moderate event.

We can agree to disagree on this. The cooler RONI was a reflection of how the West PAC warm pool acted to partially negate the warm ENSO influence, as evidenced by the high residence time of the MJO in phases 4-6 and the Aleutian ridging. That is not typical super El Niño, regardless of the fact that it was also a warm result. Not complicated....+ SST anomalies don't have the same capacity to alter forcing schemes when surrounded by a sea of warmth. ....same reason a 980mb low is much stronger when there is a 1050mb high upstream as opposed to a 1020mb high. its all about the gradient. CC is making this a more prevalent issue that it had been in the past.

Does anyone have the link that that shaded super ensemble product? TIA...

The North Pacific was pretty different.

Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Not according to the research....

Yea, I got that right but was flat-wrong about the implication of it and how it would manifest.

@snowman19Must love this....

I don't disagree with any of this. Just discussing the run, but I do think keeping an open mind is a vital part of seasonal forecasting.

I'm not saying it's right, but that is not a very warm 500mb pattern to me, at least for the NE....ostensibly it is.....but if you really look at it, that is a sneaky cold pattern because southern Canada is cold and the PV is elongated. This is what I have been saying is the avenue to a decent winter. May gain more credence if its consistent and the ACE ends up into orbit.

Looks less menacing for the US in the longer term, but far too early to write it off.

This La Nina never looked strong per ONI, but that doesn't mean the attendant Walker Cell won't be because I think that it will.

I figured it had too in short order given how small it is and how rapidly it spun up.

Some signs that awaited EWRC has commenced...

Thanks....looks like maybe a decent December....I would take that and run.

I think it will obviously be a positive NAO winter, but I don't think it will be essentially wall-to-wall like some seasons. I think we could have a good month.

2014-2015 was more of a rival to 1995-1996 in SNE ...the dry March caused it to fall a foot shy IMBY, but Boston of course caught it.

I thought it was May-Aug?

I think the La Niña being somewhat biased to the east helped, too.....you won't find an appreciably potent Modoki La Niña with much blocking.

Any sign of a concentric eye wall yet? I would be surprised if Beryl doesn't begin an EWRC prior to direct impact with the Windwards given the size/structure attm......which may not be good news because the more intense/tighter system may very well miss all of the larger islands with the truly dangerous winds. It probably wouldn't have much time to expand, though....myabe just drop the max sustained winds. I feel like beginning an EWRC PRIOR to encountering the more hostile environment in the Caribbean will be key to its ability to reintensify down the road.

This can't be stressed enough.....larger scale features that impact track and intensity trends are more meaningful on those courser global tools.

I think it should go south of them....at least the worst.

That has zero to do with his decision.....he just doesn't like the odds of hitting the core.

Euro is best case for US.