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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still expect a healthy moderate Nina per RONI and weak per ONI approaching moderate.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.....ironically enough, eastern winter enthusiasts should be cheering on La Nina because otherwise we are entirely at the mercy of the extra tropical players. That would not leave me super optimistic given the raging solar status, W QBO and that absolutely demonic west PAC warm pool. Perhaps a boneafide La Nina will provide some bouts of poleward Aleutian ridging and an active N stream.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry to hear, man.....good luck with everything. This place is a much needed escape from life. I know we don't always see eye to eye (except maybe this season lol), but its never personal.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really wasn't suggesting that they were viable winter analogs....just an anecdotal, "hey btw"...that said, I think its more difficult to predict a bottom-feeder snowfall season if that ACE gets over about 200 or so.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Must be having a bad day...maybe triggered by the relase of the Farmer's Almanac?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm pretty sure that was light-hearted, man....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least we have this....pretty good winer composite right there.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    None of those years sucked for snowfall the ensuing winter...at least there is that-
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting 1999 is on that list, as that is one of my top analogs.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't stand when people try to chase pots of gold at the end of rainbow as tropical systems execute a parabolic recurve underneath SNE......the notion that it may not miss is the largest fraudulent illusion in all of meteorology in the absence of a mechanism to capture and pull it north. I kind of liken i to weenies holding out hope that a bit more radiational cooling than forecast will buy them more snow as a major low cuts to their west the next day.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Suprise, suprise, the composite rolled forward sucks.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It really won't be very close and is not at all compelling.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am hopeful for a seasonal December....at this point, give me a seasonal holiday period, and then you can shit down my throat the rest of the way and I'd be content.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think that was related to the +IOD and El Nino hangover.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Combo of +IOD La Nina coming out of an El Nino with the onset of the +AMO near solar min was a perfect storm.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think we have one more run at 90+.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    To each their own....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    What boring few years of weather...if I hadn't had my own private blizzard last January, I would have completely lost it.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Rest of the month looks kind of normalish to me....I agree those long range - anomalies are probably grossly exagerrated.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was La Nina that acted like El Nino....inverse of last season. 2010 I will at least entertain the conversation because of the magnitude of the ENSO, however, I won't even acknowledge 1995. Just a complete opposite hemispheric pattern in every respect with the exception of La Niina.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ineedsnowA couple of those members are pretty interesting for the benchmark!!
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I def. noticed that because I track/forecast tha tone.....Ernesto I could not give two taints about. I knew Berly wasn't going into MX.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its more that the field has caught up...especially the GFS.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Manageable, though....doesn't look overwhelming like earlier in the season.
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