40/70 Benchmark

Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Not according to the research....

Yea, I got that right but was flat-wrong about the implication of it and how it would manifest.

@snowman19Must love this....

I don't disagree with any of this. Just discussing the run, but I do think keeping an open mind is a vital part of seasonal forecasting.

I'm not saying it's right, but that is not a very warm 500mb pattern to me, at least for the NE....ostensibly it is.....but if you really look at it, that is a sneaky cold pattern because southern Canada is cold and the PV is elongated. This is what I have been saying is the avenue to a decent winter. May gain more credence if its consistent and the ACE ends up into orbit.

Looks less menacing for the US in the longer term, but far too early to write it off.

This La Nina never looked strong per ONI, but that doesn't mean the attendant Walker Cell won't be because I think that it will.

I figured it had too in short order given how small it is and how rapidly it spun up.

Some signs that awaited EWRC has commenced...

Thanks....looks like maybe a decent December....I would take that and run.

I think it will obviously be a positive NAO winter, but I don't think it will be essentially wall-to-wall like some seasons. I think we could have a good month.

2014-2015 was more of a rival to 1995-1996 in SNE ...the dry March caused it to fall a foot shy IMBY, but Boston of course caught it.

I thought it was May-Aug?

I think the La Niña being somewhat biased to the east helped, too.....you won't find an appreciably potent Modoki La Niña with much blocking.

Any sign of a concentric eye wall yet? I would be surprised if Beryl doesn't begin an EWRC prior to direct impact with the Windwards given the size/structure attm......which may not be good news because the more intense/tighter system may very well miss all of the larger islands with the truly dangerous winds. It probably wouldn't have much time to expand, though....myabe just drop the max sustained winds. I feel like beginning an EWRC PRIOR to encountering the more hostile environment in the Caribbean will be key to its ability to reintensify down the road.

This can't be stressed enough.....larger scale features that impact track and intensity trends are more meaningful on those courser global tools.

I think it should go south of them....at least the worst.

That has zero to do with his decision.....he just doesn't like the odds of hitting the core.

Euro is best case for US.

Put together some quick, early thoughts. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/hurricane-beryl-to-devastate-south.html I think the southern half of the GEFS suite is probably out to lunch.....can see a Gilbert type scenario, but probably not further south than that.

Fire up the aresols again.

Your NAO theorem flipped +, correct? We're about halfway home on that...

I thought reducing aerosols should temper global warming? Its among it worse, or is this is a shorter term reaction?