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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    And its easy to do given the abundance of data and dearth of sample size....case en point, making +QBO/La Nina look like an indicator for -NAO when you are neglecting solar cycle.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO/potent el Nino of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO. This dovetails into the favorable stretch I expect near the turn of the decade, which would be a milder version of the 76-78 stretch near solar min.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Many of his westerly QBO years occurred near solar min, so his research isn't exhaustive enough. I will bet my left nut that this DM period does not average -NAO, however, nor do I think its wall-to-wall roofed positive as the Euro implies. I think we see one month that is appreciably negative. That said, we need the Pacific to cooperate or it won't matter for most of us.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. Its going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    He looks legit, but after reading him for the past few years, he seems to always find a way to go cold.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing much.....all I am saying is that the years I chose to make that JJA H5 composite, which matches JJA 2024 at H5 pretty well, is currently supported by some of the seasonal guidance when rolled forward into winter. Again, just a FWIW at this point and even if it worked out, it will need to be adjusted warmer today to account for climate change.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like 1970s IMHO....obvuiously warmer, before I get beaten over the head with 2016-2024 composites.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS....now I know I have it wrong.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is interesting is the composite rolled forward compared to the JFM CANSIPS
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just starting to mess with analog composites....here is my first stab at JJA H5...JJA 2024 vs my early matching composite. Looks decent.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    FWIW, 1970, which is one of my polar analogs, looks like a pretty decent JJA H5 analog. Definitely would not be suprised to see a modified version of 12/70 play out.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ideally you want to be near the line....that looks more like a 12/2007 chain of overrunning events for the first half of the season, then the gradient relaxes a bit later so there is more room for amplification of waves.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, in a desperate attempt to shift gears.....the CFS and CANSIPS are pretty cold for winter. Tough to sell it as being overreliant on ENSO like last year....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Has guidance shifted? I'll defer, since I don't look at models from April through Snoretober, aside from climate and the tropics.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This maybe the most boring couple of weather years that I can recall since being a child.....if I hadn't gotten lucky with Jan 7 early on this year, I would be just losing my shit. This pattern is just brutal and relentless as fuc$....just murdering winter and now cane season. Hell, severe season dissapointed relative to even the paltry baseline expectation.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like SEMA. I don't expect anything.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same page....I see something qualitatively similar to the past several years, but not so prohibitive.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also has the nascent PV really tiled se towards NE...I have noticed a lot of guidance doing that during the winter, as well. CANSIPS does it, too. Good way to run a decent winter regardless of NAO. Good way to get an active gradient pattern.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think most of us are pointing out the relationship between solar cycle and total ACE.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Goes along with the theme of a stronger cool ENSO than implied by ONI and a potent N stream.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful about getting to wrapped up in the Modoki index this season because the intensity of La Nina all things considered will be moderate at best. Theoretically speaking, it could be superceded by other extra tropical factors.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.
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