40/70 Benchmark

Weak el nino.

Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.

I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.

I'd quite frankly be stunned if la nina materialized.

Its epic here...now watch, he'll spit the bit after nailing the terd last season. Lol

I would not be at all upset with a blend of 1992-1993 and 2004-2005 for winter.

I was very skeptical, but he did well last season. Still not my preferred methodology, but he def. has my attention this season.

Yea, big -EPO and ENSO strength is about all I had right last season.

Thanks for the clarification. Maybe I am wrong, but I did not see the issue, at least not predominately, as a 2001-2002 type relentless PAC firehose that eradicates N America of cold, last year. We had plenty of cold, but in the absence of a pos PDO, the cold dumped west, and with no Atl blocking, there was nothing to hold it and prevent storms from displacing it.

Thanks for the clarification.

What does this have to do with episodes of PNA during boreal winter?

Care to elaborate?

Maybe another back-loaded winter. Thanks for that research. Some Pacific help could mean a bit more of a favorable early season regime for the east coast relative to last season, though. IOW, while we may have to wait on any NAO help until later in the season, I think the PDO will be higher.

Lol SNE would take that blend. We'll see what happens....still so early.

Hopefully we can take another stab at weak el nino this year....I like 1.2 and 3 starting cold, anyway. Thanks for the feedback, Raindance...good stuff.

What are your thoughts on 1969-1970? Just starting to look at things, and this season catches my eye for some obvious and not so obvious reasons. Good work last year. I have learned a great deal from your way of looking at things.

Yea, I remember you posting about that. May very well hold some weight.

Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points. I was awful.

I agree. Very solid contributor.

My best event...man, that was the cherry on top of a pretty damn near perfect outlook. There was only one direction to go, and sure enough, this season went in it. lol

Mixed results in this area on second year el ninos...87-88 was meh, but 77-78 was great.

Is this why you were suggestion that some residual impact from Pinatubo may have contributed to the abysmal arctic regime of the 1994-1995 winter?

BTW, I actually started suspecting my area was going to jack just before and as the event started.... 1) It began as rain, which oddly enough excited me because I knew damn well KPYM wasn't going to jack and the system was a bit west and warmer than progged. 2) The death band moved near Montaulk PT, which is a pretty good proxy for systems that nail my area. As an aside, I think this season would have made a run for the seasonal record had a weak el nino developed as I had thought last summer...no way we would have punted Feb.

That, and I was awake for the peak of this one. I crashed at midnight with 1' in the ground in 1997. 3.62LE on 4/1 vs 1.7" on 3/13? No contest, there.

You're right. I just checked the pic...24.7". My bad.