40/70 Benchmark

Noting a bit of a precarious trend.......here is an excerpt from latest TPC discussion. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north.

Ironically enough, this started as an extra tropical cluster of T storms, too...figures.

That is insane for this latitude...never see that. I wonder if its due to the HADLEY CELL?

Similar for the cape, but I am talking about the rest of us. There is a difference between NE and NNW movement.

Is it drier, more stable air inhibiting the system on the euro?

I agree on that.

Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol

That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW.

I could totally see that...

Who issued a First Call?

Yea, I don't see the avenue to acceleration.

There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact.

They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS.

I am really having less of an issue with a potentially ominous track. What I can't get past is this not unraveling on approach...I don't care what the models show.

Yea, I said the same thing in my blog. Late Fri night into maybe very early Sunday is window.

Same.

Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html

That makes sense. Thanks.

I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story.

Agree.

Yea, its more pronounced than usual, sure...I was answering specifically to initialization. Its fine to disagree and explain a position like you guys have done, but the douchey, condescending tone isn't needed.

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.

Probably a TS if it ever makes LF.

Yes...the obsession with the precise initialized minimum central pressure is strange.

Not saying much....I'm sure this fall we will see the closest signal for snow since last spring.