Typhoon Tip

it's already 68 here

That's typically how we get our biggest heat as a matter of climate fact... The model of AN in NE has 2 origins: 1 MS Valley/Gulf 2 S/W U.S. These have different large synoptic circulation modes and are easily identifiable. 1 is a WAR sourced. The West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades west and bulges the westerlies N of New England. This tends to collocate with a surface ridging which imparts a deep layer SW flow from east Texas and the Gulf region up and around the periphery of the high. This type of heat seldom exceeds the low 90s, but will transport high theta-e ( elevated DP) air. think 92/76 2 is Sonoran desert/elevation processed heat. This is led by a +PNA that collapses into a mode change -PNA. This ejects plume(s) of intense kinetically charged desert air, with exceedingly hot 850 mb type temperatures, EMLs and very tall mixing columns on the soundings. The -PNA sends heights higher over the eastern mid latitude continent, and the ejected plume(s) of high heat get timed into that ridge expansion and trapped. This kind of AN pattern is typically where we get our biggest T. DPs may start out diurnal cycles in the 70s, but will tend to mix down to the 60s. think 100/66 Sometimes... you can hybridize between these two ... For example, the retrograding WAR may be coupled with a --> -PNA.... but there is no certainty while that is happening that a plume will be timed. So it's important in climate awareness to understand the mechanistic differences in how the heat is transported across the continent. That EPS mean above is indicating the #2 method of heat transport is favored - assuming that gaudy look actually materializes that way.

Nailed it

Unless Rt 2 can roast it's way back to 86 or 87 this next round's liable to turn right and head down into CT and shade us with vils

Severe watch issued #2

anyway, you'll go back sunny in a half hour ... we'll see if we can recharge.

we had a wind shift prior to this line moving in ... was SW ..now WNW I think this was a processed air from when this was over eastern NY earlier this morning. it's not really associated/generated by this current/nascent stuff because it was too far out ahead.

yup there we go nice cell near orange

Impressive CB structures visible here on the NW-N horizon associated with that... I can also see TCU ( new) just up the way so I suspect Rt 2 may take off down here soon

Next chance for a heat wave is Sun-Mon-Tue ... Tuesday's a bit of a wild card. May fail, but Sun-Mon are modeled as low or middle 90s. Beyond that... there doesn't appear to be an ensemble supported cooler transport, so it's not clear how far down toward normal the ambience will settle off. It may in fact stay modestly above normal during the remainder of the week. Beyond that...watching for the possibility of a newer warm ridge emergence. The spatial synoptic layout of the ensemble, particularly in the EPS mean, for that that period show a distinct tendency for lowering heights in the Pac Nw... At this time of year that teleconnects to a ridge in the mid lat continent down stream. We're talking D10+ so the operational runs don't really have any responsibility to necessarily show that - so we'll see. But that tendency preceded the eventual emergence of the bigger heat event recently when it too was in the 10 day to 2 week lead, but only vaguely. It seems to be this is a leitmotif so far this warm season - could be an indicator for a warm summer if that continues. In the meantime, I do suspect we'll have to contend with bigger heat once or twice during these next 3 weeks at some point.

weak flow in the summer's a bitch to figure this shit out sometimes. all these crickets in the flow. that band is between the fronts given WPC, which is kind of a piece of shit surface obs option anyway, because they only update the fucker 3 hours at a time. so who knows .... what's triggering a band of convection doing between these boundaries it seems to decaying on radar/ sat trends. but the surface obs on the post side of it are cold. it's in the low to mid 60s under that wedged clearing over eastern NY this is nuanced scenario. that's doesn't seem like anything's going to trigger there.

Other than he should be looking at the wave frequency along the interface latitudes of the HC's termination into the westerlies, and not above the polar jet at this time of year ... , sure

If this Euro-esque solution were to take place, this would set up a mega torch for the NP-Lakes-OV-NE. ...basically everywhere over the c-eastern mid latitude continent.

Boom... I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo. when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely. what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.

that chart does not signify "no sign" - to say so doesn't do this source any help in confidence they know how to interpret