Typhoon Tip

It's not a bad 'global vision' yeah. I could see that. Unfortunately, that still would be too late for a lot of fragile species that cannot adapt ( down to evolutionary genetics!) quickly enough, thus will go extinct. I mean this is already happening - not supposition on this point. We are in mass extinction when expanding to geological time scales. Anyway, it may also not take PETM to lurch and trigger vastly more injurious consequences than are foreseen. In fact, I'd almost count on that. Intuitively we don't need 5 deg before crazy enough stuff starts happening within that uncertainty manifold. Enough so to enforce population correcting in our species - even if people think we can exist on this world in a vacuum. The funny thing about that op-ed there... birthing rates, globally, are plummeting already. Not sure if this sociodynamic randomness, or some sort of biological aspect with pollution or both... I suspect both. "Millennials" aren't interested; a one generation distinction but it's broader than that. Meanwhile, fertility in males is falling at alarming rates.

This is a nerdly interesting... The ensemble spatial-synoptic evolutions do not look very representative of the numerical teleconnectors. That's a little unusual. Neutralizing NAO and a negative PNA should be laying out a warmer canvas over the mid latitude continent. Yet the means synoptics try to prevent summer from ever getting here. The operational version are even worse. The GFS is trying desperately to snow for PF on D10 ... if fails, but it's just seething in want of doing it. jesus christ. April is supposedly the warmest month ever in the world or whatever ... yet again, in an endless series of always warmer than the one before. Just sayn'

back building narrow cloud axis should make today's max temp interestingly targeted

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/02/us/video/pfas-forever-chemicals-farmland-food-biosolids-digvid ... there are other things that'll kill you because of human ingenuity. The more time that goes by, decades and counting, the more so it appears there is no way off this road. We've sold our futures to innovation and ingenuity, generations ago. Separate discussion but ... human innovation may very well turn out to be the most destructive force this planet has ever known - the verdict is still out. We are going to have to emerge equally as impressive measures and method to ameliorate. The reason why, these various systems appear to be set upon a momentum that is no longer capable of self-correction, a predicament that seems more and more so to require that same capacity to fix. "Silent thresholds." Somewhat analogous to the event horizon of a black hole: the observer doesn't necessarily notice or sense anything unusual when crossing that boundary - only that they can never return to the previous paradigm. The momentum carrying us into a CC realm cannot be countermanded merely by cutting C02 at this point - we've slipped through the proverbial horizon. PFAS and BPAs etc...etc... these so-called "forever chemicals" ( great idea, huh ), the 'momentum' of the damage they cause, the question should naturally arise, will that last forever, too? -this is simple logic.

For warm/spring weather enthusiasts this next 2 week is a direct attack on you personally ... It's giving you days like today, ephemeral and unsustained ..., deliberately so that it can bring you 44 F light rain all day on Sunday at a spiritually maximized torture. A routine the operational models appear to attempt to repeat several times right out to mid May.

frustration/kidding of course...

nope... apparently, this strata is not physically reactive to any kind of electromagnetic power of the sun - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Seems the sensitivity is almost entirely NAO causal. I'm noticing that same general improvement after this weekend in the panache of the guidance out in time ( variable depending on which.. but by and large). Meanwhile, all ens sourced teleconnection coverage shows an abrupt neutralization of NAO from ~ -1.5 SD to nominal by early week. The mid and extended range NAO is 0 SD flat-lined from ~ the 5th out into oblivion, after that point in time. Those two facets seem likely connected. During this and recency with -NAO we've kept seeing trough shrapnel and all other perturbations diving SE when nearing 90W/50N ... blunting back any continental westerly flow types from getting in here - that's the -NAO having established as a primary forcing mechanism on the current era synoptics. In short, we need to get rid of that f'ing menace. I also want to add, this is consistent with the last 5 years of spring NAOs. 4 out of the last 5 years have seen a -NAO between mid April and mid Mays. And these were not merely intraweekly excursions in the index values. These were definitive R. Wave structures that pulsed in amplitude in the negative phase states, spanning 2 weeks or more. Those months that were positive outliers, actually still had negative phase states that encourage at least transient negative anomalies. Probably why those positive average mo's were limited to a +.5 SD paltry range. These negative NAO excursive springs have(are) taken(ing) place regardless of leading ENSOs, too - just thought we'd clear that up now - which argues that there is a separate manifold of forcing that is causing this transition season cold regression to take place. We probably don't have to labor the fact that -NAO are going to be more problematic to temperature distribution in NE and SE Canada than anywhere else on the continent. Particularly when the -NAO is biased over the western limb of the domain - which they have been just going by both memory and a-priori. Well, looking at the two recent days of 80 F in N PA while we sniff low tide cool air smells in Worcester certainly fits the bill.

This is an interesting article over at Phys.org, https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html This is statement is concerning, "...The fundamental problem is that warmer waters hold less carbon dioxide and offer fewer nutrients for the plants and animals that exist there..." On the other hand, science has shown that the oceans in general "absorb 25 percent of carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of the excess heat generated by these emissions" - https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/ocean. ( I've read this in countless other direct sources of peer reviewed/publications) If (then) warmer oceans hold less carbon dioxide, and we are seeing the oceans warming at a non-linear increase ( the future will test whether that is temporary...), that should infer a -d(absorption) capacity. See ? this is how 'run-away' green-house warming begins.

Just in an intuitive sort of consideration ... it's almost humorous. It took this planet a half a billion years and more to create and stow all of these highly volatile 'fossil fuels.' Humanity, with their genius innovation, arrive on the scene "needing" to liberate that volatility ... back into a reactive environment, just since the IR. 500,000,000 years going in ... Since the Industrial Revolution, ~ 0.000045% of the same amount of time going the other way. How can that happen without consequence.

At a minimum requirement for recovering temp today the mid and high level cloud levels need to pass off. Check ... But as that miasma slips off the area, it is exposing some of the densest low level strata there can be without actually being underwater. man The sun is very intense at this time of year though.

Hey... modestly entertaining to me. I consider you lucky all things considered. to each his own I suppose... Trying to brighten here. Temp surged from 51 to 58 when that happened. It really wants to be quite a bit milder than it is today, but clouds ftl

Also, the training convection .. VT/NH central zones is related to this BD. It's circumstance is causing the larger synoptic environmental warm pattern ( to wit, there's a ridge over eastern N/A mid latitudes that's really not receding very much ) to flow up and over the cool air mass E of western NE terrain... It then hits it's buoyancy sigma and boom. Is there any thunder with with that?

It's probably for the benefit of all mankind, either way. But ... I will not post in this thread, henceforth, until the phrase "severe weather season" is erased from the title -

It's 63 in KHFD at the moment... up 6 since 7 am. It's 51 KBED, up 1 since 7 am. Both locations are reporting full cloud coverage. Both sites also reporting N or NE, albeit very light, wind flow. High res vis imagery displays the entire pan-regional scale in inundated by canonical BD jamming, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined The deeper layer thermal profile would support temperatures similar to yesterday if crucial insolation were allowed to heat the lower levels. Scott and I noted this yesterday, the lighter wind field and so forth ...this is really going to come down to how much sun gets through. Obviously this more likely in CT than E. MA. We are just a week away from entrance into solar maximum, lasting ~ the next 91 days henceforth. It's not like some magical boundary where all the sudden it matters... Being this close already we're getting roasting sun - when it is allowed through. We've seen it be in the high 40s on July 4.