jm1220
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Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here.
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The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been.
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- heavy rain
- damaging wind? squalls?
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We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east.
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A wet October is sometimes a good sign for winter. Cold Octobers are better but dry/warm is almost always bad. Unfortunately with this storm we saw the usual pattern of the SE ridge flexing and forcing the storm track inland.
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An inch or so rain here.
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Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave.
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- heavy rain
- damaging wind? squalls?
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In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.
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Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
jm1220 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated. -
Story of the last 12+ months here. Why would it change now?
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The waters off Newfoundland are quite warm which I would think favors the south based block but hopefully I’m wrong.
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Even when there is -NAO blocking I don’t see it as worthwhile as it’s been in the past with how far south the blocking sets up a good chunk of the time and tendency to link with the SE ridge. Wavelengths are different in the winter but we have a storm coming up that will be forced inland despite the blocking. Honestly +NAO might be better for snow chances here these days.
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Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed. Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”.
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Flip side it's light out when I have to wake up for work.
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ESE flow ahead of a low tracking inland means lots of upslope for E PA/upstate NY and showery weather for the city/coast. Some places east of the low would get lucky with banding but by far the best would be well inland. Looking like a couple/few day nasty period without much drought help here. Thankfully we had the storm mid month to help a little.
