jm1220
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About jm1220
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Will probably make backdoor front season worse.
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Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend.
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13 this morning.
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It’s more of an inverted trough setup and we have to see where it sets up.
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You want the snow to pile up-obviously you want snow. You want the snow to stay around-you want sleet.
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Yep, the snow melt we’ve had is largely from the sun at a slightly higher angle every day.
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Trucks were still moving the snow piles around this AM in the parking lots. Like I said this snow would have a disproportionate impact because of the sleet driven into it making it a lot denser.
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A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely.
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Time for a refresher for the black ice piles in the parking lots.
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Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though.
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I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling.
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I plan to be in Boston from 2/13-16 so it’ll be a guaranteed miss or slop. You’re welcome!
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Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out.
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March 2018 was epic. Not calling for that again of course but I’ll take a heavy snow event in March to pad the stats even if it melts faster.
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With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities.
