Bob Chill

No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase. Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty.

Always appreciate your posts. We think alike often. That's either awesome or some scary S lolol. I'm pretty sold on the CFS monthly ideas in the high latitudes. Fits the "blocking is back for a stretch" weird multi decadal pattern that I personally think is real. It's not a predictable cycle like others but it does wax and wane in 8-12 year cycles. Problem with prediction is you only know its flipped in the rear view and there are plenty of odds and ends that muddy it up. I've seen enough last couple of years to feel oddly confident this winter will feature some really nice looks. But if we're all being honest, storm tracks just aren't what they used to be. Imo- it's no fluke it's hard AF to get normal stuff underneath us in a clean way... even with good looks. You could say the east is due for a run of traditional noreasters but again, muddy odds and ends are persistently and consistently stabbing us right in the heart. Random? I hope so but idk... Intuition doesn't feel like it is...

Just under 3" in my yard but I just got back from a trip to Roanoke. On the way back it was straight dumping from the east side of town to the Blue Ridge. Rivers, rocks, and debris on all roads lol. It was wild. Not like big flood stuff. Just sheets of running water and gutters barfing anything they had in them into the streets lol. My son saw a small tree stump floating down a side street. I was concentrating on driving at the time. Man that S was wild. Weather is awesome

I don't have any thoughts about next winter so I'll just use this one for now

Oh yea! I'd tell you to move north but I don't want to do that to innocent north of OKV peeps. They like rain and snow. Over 2" and counting. Ground is done absorbing. Heavies are running off pretty quick. Convective rain later (if it works out) should bring some mini flood photo ops lol. This event will end up being more than anyone needed to this area but man, we needed it anyway.

Man it's been dumpin down here lol. Start time kept getting pushed back leading in but it doesn't matter. Every wave and pulse has heavies mixed in. I wouldn't worry to much about a bust (except for a small area N of Winchester ). Tomorrow has convective potential and that will likely bring some warnings to the blue ridge into the piedmont. Some people already have over 3". My yard about half that. Glad it's coming in prolonged waves. We really needed it. Been a dust bowl since early April. Not kiddin either. Dustier than Tony Montana's upper lip and stuff

Total hit and run. Filled in and mod snow took like 10 min then full foot on the gas for 90 min then rapid shutoff and mountains came back into full view. Man, what an awesome "personal" event. Wife is similar to me but not insane. She sat right by our biggest windows drinking coffee smiling start to finish. I need some warm days though. I have big time projects getting underway including a month behind the controls of an excavator and probably 100 tons of fill dirt to work with. Plan was to be done with this by 2/1 lol. Apparently frozen ground shuts down earthwork and dirt merchants

Shut off like a switch. 1.8" yesterday and 1.8" today. 2 completely different experiences but hit 3.6" total. Blue sky is in the distance. Should be good photo ops here shortly. I'm not really that close to climo. 9.3" on the season and modern climo maps tag this elevated area with 13" around smith mtn. I still give this winter a B-B+ grade based mostly on the feels. Multiple cold events, plenty of snow cover days, and lots of fun tracking. If i can hit 13" it's an A-. Below norm DJF with multiple events it's not normal or average. It's pretty rare.

After some solid un-luck yesterday, I managed to draw an inside straight. Might already have 2" new. I'll measure when it's done. Bust is unbusted

Better than ANYTHING yesterday lol. I'll clear and inch on this round easy. Might be there already. 15-20:1 stuff. Man I love upper level action. Reminds me of my Colorado years

Heavies. Snow globe scene

Getting hit pretty good with mod high ratio snow with big dendrites. Half inch in under 30 mins so far. Hope it holds together for y'all. Heavier than anything i got yesterday lol.

Getting mod snow now. Nice band!

Lt snow started up again. Not expecting much. Maybe .5" but radar looks OK and it cold AF so we'll see

Exactly. I'll enjoy any and all. March snow is like last hour at the bar after a long night. Things are winding down and thinning out and right when you're ready to call it a night, someone starts buying rounds of shots for everyone and a super hot girl starts talking to you. This is why you never go home early