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Monsoon Start


aslkahuna

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Easterly flow has become established and dewpoints have soared into the upper 50's to mid 60"s with boomer activity becoming more widespread. These are all indications ofn the natural establishment of the Summer monsoon over SE AZ. Based upon current data and assuming this isn't a false start, monsoon start date will be July 2nd for Sierra Vista and most likely July 3rd here.

eve

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SPC "See Text"

...AZ...

A MONSOON-INDUCED MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AZ INTO

WEDNESDAY. WHILE CONSEQUENTIAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE EXACT

DEGREE OF STEERING FLOW ARE UNCERTAIN IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER

RIDGE...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF

DOWNBURSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN

AZ/PERHAPS ADJACENT LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

TUS.gif

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After last night's working over by a Black Wall of Doom which brough severe weather to the downtown area, most of Tucson will be quiet today. Visually boomers are all around us but we're in a large clear area. Big mamu down to the SSW. Last night's IR imagery was classic monsoon.

post-92-0-88552100-1309904356.jpg

Steve

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Anyone see Dr. Forbes radar cross section of the 15,000 foot high haboob headed in the general direction of Phoenix?

The youtube vids are pretty amazing this morning...day to night in a few minutes.

Sweet ob out of PHX...

METAR KPHX 060305Z 20019G46KT 1/8SM R07L/0600V0800FT -RA +DS VV003 30/18 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 17046/0256 WSHFT 0247 RAB04 DS ALQDS P0000 $ =

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This was a surprising event since we usually don't get two storms like this in a row but the dynamics associated with a monsoon disturbance triggered and extremely severe thunder stom east of Tucson. The clear skies of TUS in the afternoon was a result of the inflow into the developing storm 40 miles away. A small thunderstom ahead of the line segment reversed course and was drawn into the big storm with radar showing the smaller storm being ripped apart by the intense inflow in the mid levels. Sustained winds of 62 mph with gusts to 77 mph hit D-M, the airport has gusts to 71 mph and the UofA 81 mph with widespread damage the gust front consolidated near Casa Grande and that's where the haboob developed. Monday's storm was microbursty and was an appetizer while yesterday was a massive gust front and the main course. Dessert today? hard to say.

Steve

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  • 4 weeks later...

wow, why did this thread die out? this season has been fantastic...lots of wet storms instead of dry lightning!!! i was just checking out Zion National Park was doing, and tonight there is a flash flood warning up for the North Fork of the Virgin...2.05inches of rain has fallen in the drainage area...i hope there is no one hiking the narrows...if there are, i hope they are at campsite 7- highest campsite in the canyon, and it has a nice sandstone overhang that you can set up 3person tent under to protect from the rain :) loved that spot!!!

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wow, why did this thread die out? this season has been fantastic...lots of wet storms instead of dry lightning!!! i was just checking out Zion National Park was doing, and tonight there is a flash flood warning up for the North Fork of the Virgin...2.05inches of rain has fallen in the drainage area...i hope there is no one hiking the narrows...if there are, i hope they are at campsite 7- highest campsite in the canyon, and it has a nice sandstone overhang that you can set up 3person tent under to protect from the rain :) loved that spot!!!

I used to forecast in Utah for UDOT :) Zion and the area around there was a blast to forecast for...I love mountain weather. Unfortunately few people care about the western forums/intermountain W. Feel free to post more thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I used to forecast in Utah for UDOT :) Zion and the area around there was a blast to forecast for...I love mountain weather. Unfortunately few people care about the western forums/intermountain W. Feel free to post more thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

i spent 5 yrs living and working in the Great Basin, Eastern Mojave Desert, and Western Colorado Plateau...i actually lived in Zion National Park for 5 months, I've lived in Moab, UT, Ely, NV, and Flagstaff, AZ...

the monsoon season was my most favorite season...i have a great picture of a Cumulonimbus tower/anvil in the distance taken at Cathedral Gorge State Park in NV

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i spent 5 yrs living and working in the Great Basin, Eastern Mojave Desert, and Western Colorado Plateau...i actually lived in Zion National Park for 5 months, I've lived in Moab, UT, Ely, NV, and Flagstaff, AZ...

the monsoon season was my most favorite season...i have a great picture of a Cumulonimbus tower/anvil in the distance taken at Cathedral Gorge State Park in NV

Check...forecasted Ely and much of NV (mainly focusing on US6/I80/I15), all of UT, and all of CO. I personally love the mountains and mountain weather, but as I said, it is hard getting people posting out here.

We do have a dedicated Rocky Mtn disco, but it certainly could use more posters.

http://www.americanw...ain-discussion/

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Check...forecasted Ely and much of NV (mainly focusing on US6/I80/I15), all of UT, and all of CO. I personally love the mountains and mountain weather, but as I said, it is hard getting people posting out here.

We do have a dedicated Rocky Mtn disco, but it certainly could use more posters.

http://www.americanw...ain-discussion/

i love the Desert Monsoon, and aslkahuna is usually my go-to guy...but as i mentioned before- his desert monsoon thread abruptly ended the first week in July...which is unfortunate because this is the most productive monsoon in a long time!

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Most productive? Not for NM. We're still incredibly dry even with the past few weeks of spotty rains. ABQ had the 17th driest July on record.

After the next few days models show a dry pattern taking hold once again, as well.

UT and parts of AZ/CO have certainly benefited the most so far this year.

post-558-0-76696000-1312404266.png

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Last night we went storm chasing in PHX

We intercepted two cells travelling north on the 101 - the strongest of the two was located around Princess Dr. and the 101.

On the way south to Tempe, we stopped at Indian Bend and 101 and there were at least 70+mph winds. The 5 and Diner across from where we were lost most of their outdoor tables and unbrellas into the parking lot.

Finally, on the way home we got hit again.

It was a great night with LOTS of lightning.

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