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on air mets said the *improvements* happened because we got more sunshine than expected this afternoon lol

we had mostly sunny skies for awhile really nice

we're also due for a 1983 like summer where you can be 95-100 from June through September

Speculative at this point but I think anything from a TS to C3 are possible. I agree with the odds of a 4 being very low. I've said this elsewhere but we have to remember that major hurricane strikes along the east coast are actually pretty rare. Since 1990 there have only been three. Andrew '92, Fran '96, and Jeanne '04. Here, there's a window where this will likely intensify, but near the coast future Imelda may have to deal with the effects of southerly shear and dry air being imparted into the circulation. Along with cooler temperatures near the coast. That said, the Euro has intensification near landfall, probably because there should be a strong outflow channel to the north. Right now there is a robust mid-level circulation apparent on satellite. We really need to see how that translates as it reaches the high SST/OHC environment near the Bahamas tomorrow. Given its current appearance and how Humberto was able to more quickly develop and intensify in its environment, I do think it's on the board that this has an impressive appearance tomorrow if shear relents some.

Yep, we have to make our own forecasts now, the way they used to do it

ET phone home?

Shrimp mode on satellite, we likely have a hurricane soon

1993: In both human and economic terms the Great Flood of 1993 was the most devastating in modern U.S. history. It was a catastrophe across portions of 9 states with losses estimated up to $20 billion dollars. Over 50,000 homes were damaged or destroyed forcing the evacuation of some 54,000 people. In all the floods took 50 lives. Water level records were set at 49 places on the Missouri River system and at 43 places on the upper Mississippi River system. The flood was notable for its duration as well as its size. Flooding began in March with record floods beginning in May and continued into September. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) wow this was still going on?

But the storm itself is tracking to our NW so this can't be a surprise.

Instead of looking at models, perhaps it's better to look at storm tracks, when a storm tracks to our NW we typically see more scattered precipitation. Those 2-4 inch amounts were very unrealistic. Our rainfall pattern is cycling back to where we were in the 80s.

what was a mid Pliocene climate like and what kind of flora and fauna were around back then Don? is there any 3D simulation we can run to see what the Earth looked like in different eras and what kind of species were on the planet back then? I'm wondering if the Pliocene was the era of giant mammals like Baluchitherium, giant terror birds (Dinorthus), giant sloths, etc.

But we can also say that the current standard of living and consumerism that plagues humanity is also unsustainable and sooner or later that was going to come to an end. Climate change is a huge problem but there are multiple aspects of human society that are unsustainable, starting with having 8+ billion people on the planet, the usage of chemical pesticides (something the UN also mentions as an existential threat), etc.

as "boring" as SD's weather can be, you gotta hear the people out there recently complaining about humidity, its hilarious. i was out there in early september and going back in a few weeks. kind of insane how 20%RH makes them feel as though they're melting

Me three! I packed a bunch of shoes, ponchos, rain jackets. Hoping we luck out and the showers stay away. Amwx meetup?

humanity will adjust to it, we need to cut down the human population anyway

He could have just been honest and said we know climate change is real but we will adjust.

.09 yesterday and 1.01 today. Today is probably our biggest one-day rain since May.

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025 Humberto continues to gain strength while moving slowly over the central Atlantic. The system is exhibiting a growing CDO feature with cloud tops to near -70 deg C, along with some convective bands over the eastern portion of the circulation, where most of the lightning flashes are currently occurring. The advisory intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB and a blend of objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm's forward speed is quite slow with a motion estimate of only 320/3 kt. Steering currents are not strong at this time since the subtropical ridge to the north of Humberto is quite weak. Global model forecasts show the ridge strengthening with time and in a few days the cyclone should move somewhat faster toward the northwest and turn northward in the vicinity of 70 W longitude. By the end of the forecast period, after Humberto passes north of the ridge, the system should begin accelerating northeastward. Cirrus motions indicate that the vertical wind shear over Humberto has lessened, and the SHIPS model output does not show the shear increasing much through 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be very warm along the projected path of the cyclone, and the system should remain embedded in a moist air mass. The official forecast continues to call for significant strengthening during the next few days. This is consistent with the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, forecast which also shows Humberto intensifying into a major hurricane this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.2N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

i went into a five day depression geunuinely thinking i'd never see a real snowstorm again

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust to 86 mph (138 km/h) was recently reported by a station on Terceira Island in the central Azores at an elevation of 884 feet (269 m). Closer to sea level, a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was measured at Ponta Furada on Faial Islan

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it.

This is bar none the most boring weather I can remember. San Diego can't be much less exciting. And Sat's rain can easily be kept crushed south by the incoming confluence/ridge.

february 19-20 debacle lol

At one point it looked like there was a chance Hurricane Leslie of 2018 might shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and become a "medicane," which would have been a fitting conclusion given that system's prior history.

I wish I could find the video where it was 4th and 3 on Detroits first drive.. The CB's were playing 8 yards off, in the end zone. That has to be one of the stupidest defensive play calls I've ever seen. The WR just turned around, QB quickly threw it him.. easy 1st down, on 4th and 3!