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Verbatim that’s showing a very muted STJ which would not be a surprise at all

Hmm, hybrid showing for late in the weekend?

Either way it will feel chilly.. we take!

Nam too cold

Reality on the Nam for Thursday afternoon

Also we take! Thursday Sunny, with a high near 56. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 29. Calm wind.

0z Euro gives him a inch lol models coming in more robust.. looks good for many now

Models are pretty strong on a -NAO for the 2nd half of October. October is actually the only month of the year that has an inverse correlation to the following Winter (DJFM) NAO state. Its correlation is -0.07, when all other months of the year it is >0.0 [CPC NAO monthly]. Over 200 years I'm not sure the correlation holds, but the last few decades are filled with lots of examples of the Oct NAO state flipping for the Winter.

If there is a Stratosphere warming mid-January, it will typically effect the NAO in the 1st half of February. It will be interesting to see how strong -QBO this year ties in with the cold season Stratosphere. It was record cold 10mb last Nov-Feb with strong +QBO.

I think there will be some cold shots, but it won't be sustained, and will usually happen behind storms, and not in front of them. I don't see a super warm Winter though.

Gawx posted, here is the updated PDO.. it has risen sharply since record July, but looks to be stabilizing right now 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

They're not uncommon but notice how much further south the storm is as it's wrapped around kind of a double barreled upper low over Ohio and North Carolina. That's what's drawing it in towards the coast. I think the hope here for me (traveling up the Hudson Valley on Sunday) is that this storm does a bit of a loop di loop and gets trapped under the pool of cool air down there maybe never making it all the way up the coast before it finally either fills in or turns east. And that's pretty much what happened at 192 hours. To bed I go. WX/PT

Over a larger dataset (CDC correlation maps go back to 1948, and have 73 total years, both + and - signs with amplitude included in the total number), the correlation is pretty strong. Especially October to February. You are right that it hasn't been great the last few years. I was thinking that October 2018, which had a -EPO, I was pretty excited about that Winter in the Fall and it ended up being a bad one. I think if you include the PNA, the recent numbers have a little more weight.. we are going strong -PNA this October. Call a -PNA/+EPO the same thing and you have a pretty strong roll forward. I think it's tied to the PDO and that correlation.

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

I’ve been getting off and on rains (mainly on) the last few hours from showers moving WNW from the ocean, including some short periods of heavy.

With regards to this next weekend's storm, sure the 00Z 10/6 operational model runs seem to have come to a consensus of hooking the storm n-nw or north up the east coast. There is considerable blocking to the east of the storm making it hard for it to exit out to the east. And while the trough over the Northern Rockies may not be quite as amped as earlier, it still seems that it's a tight squeeze for the coast hugger being depicted. I need to see at least a couple of more days of consistency with this solution to be totally convinced. I'm still just a tiny bit skeptical. WX/PT

Sept NOAA PDO continues its rise though it appears to be steadying out for now per the WCS dailies: 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

wow JFK temperatures are really off, we've been at least in the low 80s both days of the weekend.

1940s-1950s were extremely hot

we should have had more 100 degree temperatures during the summer than the 2 we got in June. July should have hit 100+ a few times here too.

we don't have sustained temperatures above 85 degrees. it's just a few days and not even 85, more like 80

all of these things have happened before..... look maybe people are *normalizing* it because they like warmer weather? that's just how it is. many of us like cold weather during the snow season, but not at other times of the year

0Z CMC has the hybrid, too, for Sunday:

Octobers have improved since the 1980s and even the 1990s. I used to dread October back then because it was too cold to not run the heat. And as a teenager my parents had a thing about not turning on the heat in October so I would turn on the stove instead lol. Pushing that transition back to November is great on the wallet.

it is, I didn't turn on the a/c at all, this is ideal weather