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Low of 62 and .03” of rain.

It seems our force field is back up. Back to the area between Richmond and DC getting swamped while everyone else gets scraps. The most lightning I've seen this year was from a thundersnow storm in January. It's been extremely boring this spring. I'd love to get a thunderstorm today.

Can I have a link to these maps?

I'd be ok if the 14th and 15th are really wet. Who wants to mow on fathers day

No major heat showing up for the next 15 days on the EPS. Wetter than normal with the warmest temperatures remaining out West. Plenty of onshore flow limiting the 90° potential. We’ll see if this can shift a bit after the solstice heading into July. June 9 to 16 rainfall and temperature departures June 16 to 23 rainfall and temperature departures

Beer this early?

Just saw a squirrel in the yard that had no tail. Looked like it was bitten off . Just a little stump. wtf

It’s all about the way model biases have been evolving over the years. We went many years near the I-95 corridor when the long range models weren’t snowy enough beyond a few days. Which is the complete opposite of the model error pattern since 2018-2019 with the record breaking Pacific Jet. The January 1978 KU snowstorm was originally forecast to be a rainstorm the day before and we got a surprise 15” snowstorm on Long Island. Then in February 1983 the original forecast a few days out was for the heaviest snows to stay down near Philly. But instead the heaviest snows shifted north into NYC Metro as the models got under 60 hours. The January 1987 KU event was forecast to be snow quickly changing to rain but instead we got a surprise 6-12”. The December 1988 surprise Norlun wasn't even forecast at all and we got a narrow 6-12” band. The January 1996 blizzard was originally forecast to get suppressed to the south of NYC from 120 hrs out. But came north in the models only 24 hrs out. The late January 2000 snowstorm was forecast to be OTS and delivered record snows in the Carolinas and over 6” around NYC. The record January 2016 snowstorm was only forecast to be 6-12” the day before around NYC and turned out to be 20-30”. So model errors in good snowfall seasons tended to be underdone beyond 24 to 48 hours out. What the models have been doing since 18-19 is showing heavy snows beyond 72 to 120 hrs only to correct further north with the heavy snowfall axis. So the error has been for the storm tracks to verify warmer and further north than originally forecast. This model error pattern worked for us with colder storm tracks to our Southeast which dominated before 18-19. Since the long range forecasts could still afford to shift north changing suppression to a KU. These days the storm track is already too far north so any shift north under 60 hrs gives us to more rain. So cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have lead to the record low snowfall from Philly to Boston last 7 years. The big snowstorm has always been beyond 120 hrs out. So this has become the dominant model forecast storm track bias. The one good thing about repeating model biases is that I use them in real time to correct the long range model forecast biases leading to better forecasts than the models.

.90” from yesterday’s rain, lawn and fertilizer happy! Let’s see what we get out of Tuesday.

0.02” yesterday as storms split here. Lots of thunder though

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