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Only reason k remember 3ff of snow is because, the precursor storm was plowing MLway above model expectations.

Two things can be true at the same time. Take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies: Gulf of Mexico is far and away the warmest compared to average to date at the moment. Central Atlantic top 3, subtropic Atlantic top 5. That you can't deny without trying to discredit the satellite data. At the same time though, obviously shear is an overwhelming issue in the Atlantic basin, given that the El Nino is the most anomalous feature on the planet. But importantly, take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies nearer to this storm system. Surely that is promoting a stronger storm, and if you go back into the database, such anomalously warm waters only started showing up there more recently.

Remember “Nemo”? Convecfive feedback is what changed the area of highest impact 50 miles east from whom was supposed to jackpot. This is very similar. No one is gonna going to know till the beast is unleashed, and she’s just getting her tether.

Granted, go-time is getting close, but the the dynamics of the beast are dynamics.

Those numbers are so bogus…and a lot those warm water temps did for the zero hurricane season in the Atlantic to date. Wasn’t it supposed to be just the opposite?

Not done yet “doing the shuffle.”

0z NAM/ICON/GFS all show this turning left into NJ , sorta similar to what the EURO AI has been showing but slightly more south. Looks like we got our consensus. Congrats NJ

love that hrrr - minimal impacts here through Sat pm.

Why so? Their methodology seems rock solid and makes logical sense.

Hailstoned hailstoned groan and boned….

40-48 hr the 00z HRRR shows it taking on more ST characteristics w/ a more focused core wind field. RRFS does this but it take more than 24 hr after this time, and the low just meanders around to the S of us for the entire 84 hr period! Lots of time to do odds stuff! @WxWatcher007 I know will be closely tracking the exact sfc low position relative to the SSTs!

Get them here! https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/gibbs/

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops. RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

I’m thinking a soft, yet strong landfall on LI, doing its dance and meandering around BIS as it kaboots in its feeble state Monday.

I got to give you props for pulling up this old satellite image!

trumpy, trumpy temper tantrum...

Yes.

On Wed, five sites in ME/Quebec set all-time record high pressures for Sep. @CoastalWx take note. It's an exceptional pattern! Frenchville Montreal Quebec City Val D’Or Chibougamau-Chapais.

You’re talking about the High?

Last post for the night; it’s looking worse and worse for us. All depends on if it does a 50/50 split or a 40/60.

Berlin mesonet site had a peak gust of 36 mph earlier today. Will be interesting to see how this storm plays out this weekend. Hope it's a sign of a decent winter incoming.

Next to the butt cheeks se of obx? .

Winter storms we wait for the ticks east on game day