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  2. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both are elite polar analogs.
  4. LibertyBell
    Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one. Like 1983 it won't stop a historic hot summer for next year. Yes but 1983 had an exceptional endless hot summer from June through September so the el nino did not make the summer cooler. 1982-83 and 2015-16 had some similarities. If anything it would be less snow than 1997-98 as that late March event was a complete fluke and the airports got less snow. 2001-02 had even less snow. At the coast latitude doesn't really matter unless you're north of 42N you have the potential to be completely shut out of snow. Both 1982-83 and 2015-16 were far better for snow than 1997-98 was with much more late season blocking. In April 1983 JFK had their latest snowfall on record.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just thinking that this is likely our way out of the 2023-redux hell.....the EPO and WPO were both dreadful, and we seem to have seen a bit of a decadal shift in that respect after a several year stretch that was pretty bad. Your NAO period is about done....must have largely neutralized...
  6. CoastalWx
    It was highly anomalous for this time of year, and with weekends busy with activities, I don’t have an issue with it being a top story. I will say I was a little surprised at the lack of damage and power outages with winds near 50kts. Then again Mother Nature has done some good tree trimming around here since 2010 or so.
  7. CoastalWx
    I have no idea what he’s talking about. It was a top story, but the communication by local Mets looked on point. NWS called for minor CF with pockets of moderate potential and that’s what happened. Winds were correct and I think models did a good job with the NW-SE max QPF in SE MA to metro west.
  8. GaWx
    From 5AM EDT NHC discussion: Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep....no doubt. I don't dispute any of that...the neutralization of the PDO is a guess on my part.
  11. bluewave
    You can see a the continuous 500mb mid-latitude ridge from Japan across to the CONUS drove another big PDO drop in September. This has been a repeating theme during the 2020s. PDO attempts to go neutral than makes another big decline. The record warm subsurface east of Japan to south of the Aleutians tells the story.
  12. Great Snow 1717
    ...the lack of accountability has been a problem for years and it continues to get worse. They think people arent owed an explanation...and it certainly has become more self serving than doing a service..
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sneak Preview of the new EURO seasonal: 2023-2024
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360 It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days
  15. Great Snow 1717
    Ive been stating for years that sports moving to streaming is laying the ground work for an eventual move to PPV....
  16. WxUSAF
    Ok. We haven’t torched as much as other places, but we’ll still post an above normal month easily.
  17. LibertyBell
    Wednesday too 3 days 80 to 85. Two or three days Wednesday through Friday. No December 1992 stalled just to the east of Delaware for two days. Winds gusted to hurricane force with very heavy rain and temperatures fell into the upper 30s here. Heavy snow from Sparta NJ west and north. Over one foot of snow there and up to three feet in PA. On the third day the storm stalled again this time just south of Cape Cod and we all switched to snow and it snowed all day with temperatures just below freezing about an inch or two of snow. We had gusty winds for 5 days here in total. This storm made landfall on the NJ coast no way it would be snow in the winter. You need a track near Cape cod not to change over to rain in the coastal areas. Chris is this for average temperature over the entire year? Does the Lake Harmony temperature and coop record only go back to 2020?
  18. Layman
    0.42" Sat, 0.89" Sun, 1.52" Mon and 0.15" today since midnight. 2.98" should do it for the total. Forecasts were between 2.5" - 3.5" for this area if I recall correctly so they seem pretty spot on.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1What are your thoughts on this with respect to the potential influence of the lower PDO and record warm eastern flank of ENSO? residual cool ENSO influence in combination with the record OHC over the eastern half of the ENSO region is one key factor that may be cause for some deviation from that season with respect to both the predominate storm track, as well as the temperature pattern over the southern and eastern US.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've seen him....but sorry, that makes absolutely no sense to me. All that will do in an El Nino is act to raise se heights, which makes it warmer and adds an element of destructive interference to opportunities for east coast cyclogenesis.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the trap that I fell into going into the 2023-2024 season....all it means is competing forces, but there are no guarantees that the "forces" are good. I bombed that season, but haven't had a bad one since....learned a ton.
  24. LibertyBell
    Not historic but major If Noreasters were rated on a 5 point scale this would be a major a Cat 3. Both Sandy and December 1992 would rate a 5 that's historic. Yes a 3 of 5. December 1992 and Sandy would be 5 out of 5. Possibly but again not historic Except for a few months last year there was never a real drought. I'm not going to use inflated averages to justify a drought. Summers are normally drier. And once this awful el nino ends we'll return to our hotter and drier summers next year. That last part is incorrect. December 1992 was far more historic than this storm on every metric. I'd put this third far behind both Sandy and December 1992. If you go farther back, to 1960, add Donna 1960 and Ash Wednesday 1962 to that list. There were sharks in people's driveways! December 1992 had a longer period of gusty winds than either here. FIVE DAYS in total! Correct a 3 out of 5. Yes but not historic.
  25. tunafish
    I heard your wx station is one of those non-scientific ones. Sorry bud, we toss.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny you mention that because this is my early-front runner-plot for December: Note the location of the ridge relative to the position on the EURO seasonal:
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