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How can you look at all modeling for next week and think Stein? It could rain several days .

I think ex Dolly might have a chance to develop in the Bahamas or gulf.. both options on the table but unfortunately will end up ots or heading west underneath that high.. nothing to bring it up as of now..

No apology needed! Your points are well taken, and I WAS being obfuscating, not so much in response to you, but rather to cast much deserved shade on the Bloated Behemoth of Babble.

Dollt}"" Despite the hostile conditions, and the fact that there's likely not a coherent LLC, post-Dolly sure is trying her best

The recent El Nino Summers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) as a blend are pretty close to 2026 for Jun-Aug - not quite by magnitude but in terms of pattern. Close match for Sept on the CFS too. Honestly, it's probably a decent match overall. 2015/2023 - very strong El Ninos with high solar, neutral/negative PDO values in all four years. Warm Atlantic. 2015/2018 both followed very warm/dry Western winters like 2026 will. Decent QBO match too.

For @weatherwiz it always come back to the EML in the end! Well, the West Stockbridge MA F4 Aug 28, 1973 tracked NNW to SSE, so odds are *big* EML then.

Yes, the state of the MDR is exceptional currently. Dry air and shear regime supreme. Look at the SAL image of the remains of Dplly attached. That dry air wrap that far S (goes to 5 deg N) this time of year? Ugh.

If you were talking in jest from the start, that was not apparent to me. It is very hard at times on social media to detect tone, inflection, and mood (compare to in-person) esp. when it comes to topical or sensitive issues. It can be a minefield and leads to unnecessary conflict. And we all have been there and are susceptible. So I apologize for the improper response. It was not done maliciously or in spite, just I was trying to clarify my position and what was trying to say w/o letting the conversation devolve, which is challenge in itself many times!

That is incorrect. I said I was not being political. Another made it political (or so I thought, see a post below that clarifies) by bring up specific motives/actions by the current administration for this one change. That's not the same thing. And again, I was taking in general about how geopolitical location name changes occur often. That's not taking "sides," politically or otherwise. It is stating objective facts as to how things actually work in the world.

I started rereading this thread and it's hilarious through page 33. And on the other hand it's incredibly frustrating 90% of the images are gone.

Ahh, a name issue. Actually, it is "Canada geese!" I got corrected on that in the 00s.

NW flow late summer? West Stockbridge MA Aug 1973 redux? Or how about this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak

@CoastalWxknows how to lighten the mood, despite his "EEYORE" tendencies! LOL. I predict "Stein" will work its way into our vernacular eventually. Like "that's so FETCH" from "Mean Girls!"

That's a good question, I guess it is subjective and a matter of opinion as to scale here. Airport name changes were just one example I gave and are more common. I noted more significant changes like major cities and country name changes as well. Again, I focused on the broader picture how geopolitical name changes occur more often than many may think, and it not a specific U.S. "problem," if one takes it that way. The "shock and awe" from all this looking at social media in general I find excessive. That's why I provided historical context in the first place. Too many act like everything in the here and now done is wrong or unprecedented, when it is often not. And you think name changes prior to locations did not have some ppl upset or pushing back? Again, historical context. W/o that, you are sailing a ship w/o a rudder, and this affects how you think/feel/react. As for the reasons location names change? They are numerous -- social, political, economic, technological --you name it, it has happened for that reason. That is a different topic and should be discussed elsewhere. In this wx forum, stick to the geopolitical name change implications as it pertains to our field and the sciences. Some have already mentioned a concern -- LES for Lake Ontario, which was partially in jest I think, but nevertheless of value and food for thought!

Yup.

Yea, I think the JMA is too cold, too. ...they both have the El Niño with a hard shift towards Modoki. I think the EURO is more reasonable with a basin-wide shift.

As mentioned before, the MDR conditions are among the worst they can be or we've seen in a long time. That kind of dry air wrapping that far S this time of year? It goes S to 5 deg N lat. Ugh. And you have this large upper-level low at 250 over Cuba that goes nowhere fast in the next week. Looking at the 500 vorticity on the ECMWF, the Dolly's vort gets to the nrn Lesser Anilities, and then gets sheard apart and nothing left to head W. On the GFS, it keeps the vort stronger, but still shears it apart near PR, and part of it does head W, but I am not sure you can call this the remains of Dolly by this point b/c it would have undergone so much shearing and misconfiguration. If something does indeed develop, it probably should be called separate TC. When the sfc and mid-level circulation cannot be track coherently, that should make it a new TC if it redevelops. Sure, there are dregs of the former system, but I find that a stretch esp. w/ so much elapsed time. In Dolly's case if something redevelops. it will be likely at least a week from that, and it may interact w/ another feature sfc or aloft during this time, distancing it from it former self.

its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days