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A common fallacy I see on many social media posts is that they show the 500 mb heights and its anomalies as always "hot." 500 heights only serve as a *proxy*, and we do not live at 500 mb. What is the sfc pressure and 1000-500 thickness? What is the nature of the air mass and 925 temps? Also, the location of interest, where is it relative to the ridge center?

@CoastalWxcalls the recent wx in the NEUS "boring?" He has no context of the word apparently. Try the current Atlantic hurricane season out for size. And you know this record inactivity is squashing ratings for places like TWC and stations in the South. Relying on wx for consistent ratings is foolhardy. I recall the 96-97 winter, marketing and execs at many stations along the E Coast seemed "shocked" ratings were not like the previous winter. Clueless.

Now we are seeing 14-day forecasts? Yes, I know AccuWx has had even further for some time, but it just shows you how ppl keep trying to one-up each other when the fcst science simply does not support it or has advanced. Like one could tell w/ *any* real skill the temp would be exactly 70 on day 14. Also, "pattern predictions?" It's a freakin' wx forecast! Call it as such! Branding marketing, nothing more. Ooo, wait, alliteration, that's KEWL! It reminds me how on some radio stations in BOS a number of years ago, the "news" suddenly became, "what's trending!" Doublespeak!

3 days of <-30 SOI in a row 18 Sep 2026 1010.91 1014.40 -34.52 -18.69 -21.31 17 Sep 2026 1011.10 1014.00 -31.02 -18.48 -21.12 16 Sep 2026 1011.63 1015.00 -33.81 -18.19 -20.84 September is going to finish pretty strongly -SOI, making May-Sept one of the more -SOI periods on record. Here is what follows the following year (+16 months): [map default is +correlation, so for -SOI it's opposite]

Updated for completed reanalysis 1971-75. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html 14 new tropical/subtropical storms (11 upgraded from tropical depressions) 21 tropical depressions were removed 1 hurricane downgraded to a tropical storm (Dawn, 1972) 2 tropical storms upgraded to hurricanes (Delia, 1973; Amy, 1975) 2 hurricanes upgraded to major hurricanes (Ginger, 1971; Doria, 1975) 86 total systems now in HURDAT2 for 1971-1975, comprising over 3000 revisions to genesis, track, intensity, central pressure, landfall, status, and dissipation. Note: The 21 TDs removed. In the early years of NHC, the would literally call any mass of convection associated w/ a tropical wave a TD! This practice ended by the later 1970s. Some ppl (not here) have said, "revisionist history!." No. We take our technology and immense observation networks for granted now, but it wasn't always this way. Also, our knowledge and understanding have increased tremendously for TCs in just the last 30 years alone, and we can apply this to historical seasons to get a better picture overall,. Also, standard and practices on what we call a TC have changed (expanded) over time. All this equates to a general underestimation of TC strength and numbers in the past, and the further you go back, the more we "missed." And these reanalyses are done by many ppl, and changes go to a committee of TC experts before it gets finalized. The amount of work that goes on here is amazing, given the shear amount of data to go over! Also, it shows that even after the advent of the satellite era, TCs were still missed or not handled the best way. I think they plan to go to 2000 w/ this reanalysis. It has been going on for 25 years now starting w/ 1851 season. Also, check out this: https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2100729487038308516 List of changes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1H5OwX26ay09jGO6mrXRS3qS5G8fVohne5KLpHYnuQUQ/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.4b2gybhe44qu

Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023 CPC's October forecast released today

Ugh.

The fascinating thing about this season, and the last two for that matter, is that either unexpected factors has squashed the peak climo period (Aug 20-Sep 10) (2024/25) or an well-known factor (very strong El Nino) has resulted in record suppression overall (it is not just a new record for low ACE season-to-date and no HUs, it is beginning to get in the high-end territory or as @Windspeed said "shattered.". This is non-trivial, to say the least. Sure, it does not have the wham-bang of TCs non-stop or wicked intense, but that not really relevant to the actual hard met science of it all. As I have mentioned I think, what suppresses TCs is just as important as what favors them, and everything in between. The last 3 Atlantic seasons have aided in furthering the TC science from their oddities are to how the peak climo part of the season has been "taken out.". I know it may not seem that way in general sense, but you can't let what is popular or not on social media or in the MSM skew the facts or contaminate the science. What has occurred the last 3 seasons is significant/not just some isolated anomaly. One could state or ponder, If going forward the MDR has these kind of issues more often or trends up, this has implications on many fronts, meteorological and otherwise. One thing I like is that we are *still* seeing things we have not seen before, at least in the modern age when we have much better observations overall. We are pushing the boundaries as to what is possible, which is a good thing b/c that expands the knowledge base. For a wx weenie, this is pure gold IMHO, b/c it shows "the more you know, the more you realize you *don't* know" and "the more you learn, the more you realize you have a *lot* to learn." The atmosphere/Earth's system is among the best things out there that exemplifies these statements!

Starting to get hints if color in Westchester and north. Break out the pumpkin spice

We need Fall to arrive very soon. This is unacceptable...

The mean global AAM based on this is not much above 0…+0.5 at most, not at all jibing with the Sep 17th +3.3. I don’t get it.

Stack another .5" on for the ones that just went through. More coming for the weekend too.

.45 of rain in Marysville today with the am & pm showers combined.

Canada was so torched no indices seemed to matter

You were in high school in what year?[emoji102]

This might have been a big snowstorm in the winter if you look at the euro AI, the high is locked in place

.12 tonight. Total of .37” today. Much appreciated-it was crazy dry