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It seems like CAMs are leaning towards an RI to Cape cluster and that may be the only show.

I just don't see the surface convergence to pop storms off in a big way around these parts.

The last cool summer here was in 2014. But it wasn’t as cool as 2009 which had the coolest June and July since the 1940s. Our summers switched to much warmer and 2010. So there have been no cool summers with 15 or lower 90° days since the 15-16 baseline jump in temperatures. We would frequently get a few warmer summers followed a much cooler one. Now it’s all well above the historical 90° norms with no cool summers anymore. As you can see on the charts below, we had plenty of those cooler summers in the 1940s and 1950s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 7 0 2 1996 9 0 3 1985 11 0 4 1982 12 0 - 1975 12 0 - 1946 12 0 7 2004 13 0 8 2009 14 0 - 1962 14 0 - 1956 14 0 11 2014 15 0 - 1976 15 0 - 1969 15 0 - 1960 15 0 - 1942 15 0 - 1940 15 0

That's probably the only hope. I guess the NAM is out to lunch with those dewpoints but if we can pool the dewpoints it may be a little more interesting. I still wouldn't be shocked if we were to see a line organize across southern CT into RI but yeah shear is weaker farther south...maybe just enough to help updrafts organize. Looks like convergence along the front is a big issue

heading out on casco bay at noon for a few hrs. looks like we should ok on the wx side of things

When all Mesos only show very isolated stuff it’s time to pick up ball and head to Stein’s house

The crazy thing is nothing really stands out from the last year. If anything their daytime temps are cooler relative to surrounding sites than they were last summer.

Heavy, heavy meh. Maybe you can get the moisture to pool enough in SNE for something, but then the shear is only so-so.

I'm not saying we will see the snowfall March 2018 did, but I think it will be better than last year. March 2023 with a bit tamer RNA would nail most of SNE.

Having 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, one right after the other was pretty wild too-- the only interruption was 1992 and that was because of Pinatubo erupting.

Wasn't the summer of 1984 much cooler than the historic summer of 1983 (my first summer on Long Island, after we moved from Brooklyn in November of 1982, my two benchmark Long Island events were the February 1983 Blizzard and the historic Summer of 1983.)

wow 1944 and 1949 were even better than 1953 and 1955 (although the latter two were more concentrated and even more extreme at their peak.)

Looks like mid to late afternoon. Hopefully if they come from the N in CT they hold together better than usual.

The bar on March has been set pretty low this decade. This is the first decade so far with under 1” average from Philly to Boston. Elevation has been the key as the coastal plain has been too warm. Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 T T 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 0.0 0.0 2020 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 T T 2024 T T 2023 0.9 0.9 2022 2.1 2.1 2021 0.1 0.1 2020 T T

That’s what’s it’s showing

Wasn't 2014 much cooler than 2010-2013-- we had less than 10 90 degree days in 2014. Many of those long heatwave records and number of 95+ degree days and number of 100+ degree days from summers like 1953 and 1955 and 1966 have not been matched since.

Models look meh for storms today

Sorry for your loss

Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2024 33 0 - 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0

What is the timing on the storms that are going to be crossing LI later?

I think March will be more favorable than last year...I also think the cool ENSO event will be more east-based...last year was a Modoki. But that end of season PV disruption should be earlier than it was last year, more along the lines of 2023 and 2018.

My guts says you are right, but it will still be pretty destructive....I think there will be some heavy hitting home brews.

Yea, I mentioned that in my update last weekend.

I understand; tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, they all need a lot of rain (I used to grow them, now I grow only flowers-- they need less watering lol). It's a fine line between rain and fungus/mold though ;-) I wouldn't mind rain Saturday night, it wouldn't interrupt anyone's beach plans.

The need for rain is more than just reservoir and well levels. Again, I’m not fretting, but the vegetation that doesn’t grow in a reservoir could use a drink. It’s not the end of the world but it’s reality. If some brush fires get going soon I’m sure all the first responders will find solace knowing that the reservoirs are full.