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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Wen’t striper fishing in June just offshore like a mile and plenty of bites. Ended up keeping two beauties. Talk about delicious. We went father out for Mackerel which is the bate, then went towards shore where the fish were. Today was more for fun with the kids. Sea bass and scup as they call it. Ended up getting a keeper so we eat this week. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
EasternLI replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens! -
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How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall?
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Gfs is very wet going forward. Typical of El Nino.
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PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
EasternLI replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020. -
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Mountain West Discussion
mayjawintastawm replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
Grand total of 0.03" rain in the last week. Grrr. Plenty of wind though. Also, August has a very good shot of being in the top 3 warmest at DEN, after 2nd warmest July ever. Current average is 76.8, tied for #3 all time (77.0 is #`1) and the forecast for the next week doesn't go below that. -
Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026
WinstonSalemArlington replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
The pattern has definitely changed -
0.14 last evening 4.94 total since May Driest place in the Mid Atlantic right now has to be northern Waynesboro....
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Temps plummeted and humidity up. Down to 67 quickly
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I’ve never had that much of a flyover right on top of me
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