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  2. forkyfork
    nope
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse. My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think one or possibly two events could workout later in February with a second ssw. Even 72/73 which was horrendous in NYC had a big one in the southern mid Atlantic. So there is definitely precedent. I think we get hung up on 97/98 too much. That winter everything just went wrong. .
  5. colonel717
    https://paweatherplus.com/pennsylvania-winter-outlook-2026-2027/
  6. Cobalt
  7. Cobalt
  8. Cobalt
  9. Cobalt
  10. MJO812
  11. Cobalt
    we all make mistakes
  12. MJO812
    Maybe its because the Mid Atlantic will see most of the storms. Jet stream will be aligned for them.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.
  14. olafminesaw
    Fingers crossed!
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Don’t forget water temps have skyrocketed in the MDR in the last couple months. At the very least it’s setting up for a big season next year. .
  16. A-L-E-K
    drag 'em
  17. cbmclean
    Even if it couples, there is never any guarantee that the impact will be manifest in our little slice of the NH. Could just as easily be Europe or Siberia. Or even western NA. Those are reason why I'm usually underwhelmed by SSW pipe dreams in the middle of a dud January. This year though, it looks like we want to hope for it, because it might be the only way to avoid a tropical December a la 2015. And remember that for the December 2015 torch it took the majority of Jan 2016 to recover the NA thermal profile, and you guys were as far south as that recovery went as far as significant snow. I wouldn't place good odds on that happening again 10 years later.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m really surprised that a legit meteorologist would make such bold claims. 09/10 is about the worst analog possible. That was the winter of all time for the mid Atlantic and has no other comparison in the historical record. .
  19. forkyfork
    blew past that before midsummer. lol
  20. forkyfork
    haha
  21. forkyfork
    bravo
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    For above average snowfall in my area? Certainly...old news.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Owning mistakes and learning from them is more important than flaunting victories. I don't hide from them at all....people value transparency. Thanks.
  24. forkyfork
    wrong
  25. forkyfork
    we are currently approaching +3
  26. forkyfork
    lights out
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