Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region.
Isolated thunderstorm threat...
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi
An upper level trough across the Great Lakes is associated with areas of surface low pressure in and around New York State. Bands of showers and thunderstorms have been pinwheeling through the eastern United States as a result. By afternoon, more organized thunderstorm development is expected and some storms could become severe.
Isolated severe thunderstorm threat...
Low pressure is spinning across New York State. An area of increased wind shear is in place along the east of the Appalachians.
As the pattern over North America shifts, an extended period of potential severe thunderstorms targets the central U.S. Although this update covers May 6-10, thunderstorms are ongoing today (May 5th) and were prevalent in prior days as well. The difference here is that we are gradually starting to see more and more potentially potent setups on the horizon.
Wednesday, May 6th: This day has been on the radar for a while and things are coming into somewhat better focus. As shortwave energy pivots
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across portions of the Plains and Mississippi River Valley.
Ongoing thunderstorms early this morning may be marginally severe across portions of Iowa, northern Missouri and Illinois. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from late morning into the early afternoon hours further south before a more serious threat develops.
Sunday afternoon, low pressure will be in the vicinity of the central border between Texas and Oklahoma. An upper level shortwa
The potential exists for a low-end severe weather outbreak across portions of the Plains this weekend, April 12th-13th.
The first focus is on Saturday afternoon into the overnight period across the central Plains. Surface low pressure is forecast to move to a position in the vicinity of the Oklahoma panhandle by 00z Sunday. Now while there is good agreement among the models of destablization in the warm sector, capping will likely mitigate any convective activity for most of the day. However,
For the fourth year in a row, overall severe thunderstorm activity, including tornadoes, finished below average across the Lower 48. This graphic shows the severe thunderstorm watch departure from the 13-year average. The vast majority of the U.S. saw at or below average numbers of severe thunderstorm watches. The greatest departures from average were across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The only state with more severe thunderstorm watches than average was Texas, with a higher in
As the calendar passes deeper into June, there is typically a steady drop-off in the frequency of severe weather threats across the U.S. Last year featured a grand finale to the severe weather season with a fairly significant sequence or tornado events across portions of the north-central U.S. from June 16th to 18th. While this year will likely not see quite an intense show as June 2014, there could very well still be some respectable severe activity with tornadoes.
Mid-June of this year has be
The relatively active month of May looks to heat up again in the coming days. After a lot of severe thunderstorm activity last week, the first few days of this week have been on the quieter side. I am looking ahead to three days in particular for the next notable severe weather threats.
Sleeper Thursday: This day has not been on the radar for most, but offers some potential, even if it is lower-end and in a relatively small area. I am focused on western Texas for isolated supercell/severe poten
What a challenging forecast and I still think the models have more to resolve, mainly on Sunday with respect to enhancement of snow along a trough.
Essentially, a light mixture of rain and snow overspreads the region through later today. Across the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I expect virtually no daytime snow accumulation. Low pressure develops south of the area tonight, but the heaviest precipitation and best lift also stays south.
Some snow
Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam.
The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv
The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m.
A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat.
As a result, a Tornado Wa
The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m.
An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th
The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5".
I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.
Here's a recap of the 2013 tornado season across the Northeast.
Connecticut had four reports of tornadoes during 2013, which is roughly twice the average amount of about two. Keep in mind that 2012 had no tornadoes in the state, so one could argue that this was nature's way of balancing itself out.
Elsewhere, New Jersey was the only other state in the Northeast with above average tornado reports. (They average two per year, but had three in 2013) Maine is not pictured here, but Maine had at le
There was a lot of anticipation leading up to July 15th. Some argued there was a "very impressive" severe setup unfolding for (southern) New England, but there was plenty of disagreement with the placement and potential severity of such an event.
For a quick summary, the severe weather parameters in place (both forecast prior and during) the event were marginal compared to past severe events in southern New England. Not one important severe weather parameter was terribly impressive and there we
Following up a cold winter across much of the country, April has proven to be a transition month. Although the month started mild for a large portion of the country, much cooler air has moved in for the middle of the month. There are signs, however, that any negative temperature departures after April 20th into the start of May will be relatively insignificant.
Before looking at May, it makes sense to look at the April forecast. For the most part, everything is going to plan from the forecast t
The April tornado forecast was a trial run and a lot has been learned since it was made. After some success with that forecast, I will be incorporating a lot more statistical analysis (analog data) into coming up with a forecast for the month of May.
Quickly recapping April:
Overall, April was a fairly steady month for tornado reports across the U.S., with 21 out of 30 days reporting tornadoes. April 1-9 was very active, including a notable, early season EF-4 tornado in northern Illinois. Apri
There is the potential for a regional severe weather event on June 22nd. The threat zone extends from portions of the middle/upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. All severe weather hazards are possible and given the nature of the setup, forecast trends are being closely monitored.
As at least two pieces of shortwave energy rotate from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Monday, a surface low is forecast to deepen from Iowa/Minnesota into Wisconsin. Impressive wind fields
Recapping May: On the heels of a relatively active month for severe weather and tornadoes in April, May 2015 continued the pace. Although the month started slow with no tornadoes for the first two days and only a handful through the 5th, the greatest single day tornado event of 2015 occurred on May 6th. This was actually expected to be proceeded by a much more significant event on the 9th, but the former won out with 59 tornado reports, as the 9th did not fully live up to the hype/potential*.
T
A notable threat of severe thunderstorm activity in early February has been showing up in the models for several days now. As the event gets closer, confidence is increasing that a setup favorable for severe weather is likely to occur. However, there still are a lot of details left to be nailed down. The broad pattern involves a vigorous trough in the jet stream digging across the Four Corners region on Monday, February 1st and swinging east to northeast across the United States into Groundhog D
Here is a final snowfall forecast for the upper mid-Atlantic region and southern New England for the Blizzard of 2015. No major changes were made to the forecast, but the western fringe was trimmed somewhat.
It's becoming a nowcast situation, as the computer models are relatively all over the place. The 12z Euro is one extreme (heavy west), with the 00z RGEM further east and much less impressive. Based on radar trends, the previous forecast map and a consideration to the model consensus, here i
I don't really expect much snowfall at all tonight. For some continuity and a slight amount of uncertainty, I painted the entire area with 2" or less of snow. Eastern Conn. and northern R.I. have perhaps a 50/50 shot at 1-2": of snow, while the rest of the area has a high probability of receiving less than 1".
Temperatures and moisture look very marginal and although some precipitation should back southern sections of southern New England, I don't see it being a big deal. There may be a few slu
Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports.
There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys.
Below is a color, contoured map I put together:
There have been no major changes to the previous forecast. Some of the snowfall totals have been trimmed back ever so slightly. A fairly widespread area of 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected, with a jackpot across much of interior Massachusetts, where most or all of the precipitation should fall as snow.
Snow becomes heavy at times early Monday morning and begins to mix with sleet and freezing rain by the morning rush around New York City. The mixing then spreads into southern New England by mi
Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
Light rain developed during the morning hours on November 26th and mixed with some sleet inland. Wet snow initially confined to the far northwestern corner of the state. As steadier precip
