Quincy's Blog

  • entries
    76
  • comments
    11
  • views
    915,687

About this blog

Severe weather and more

Entries in this blog

 

Updated Snow Forecast: Feb. 8-9, 2013

I expect mostly snow for just about all of southern New England (pictured on this map). Although there may be a brief mixture along the I-95 corridor in Conn./RI, I expect crashing temperatures and heights to bring a wind-driven snow right down to the coast and into eastern Long Island. As far as snowfall totals go, I think that higher ratios will help push NW Conn. and W Mass. to 20"+. Further east, heavy precipitation will offset somewhat lower ratios for 20"+ from IJD to BOS. There is still

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Jan. 28, 2013

Generally light snow overspread Connecticut from west to east during the morning on January 28th. Snow continued into the early afternoon and at the same time, warmer air moved in aloft. A change to sleet and freezing rain occurred from southwest to northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor changing over to plain rain. Precipitation tapered off to intermittent drizzle with freezing drizzle across much of the interior by early evening. Snowfall totals were fairly uniform with most areas pic

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornadoes in New York, May 29th, 2013

Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam. The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Jan. 2-3, 2014

Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Blowing and drifting snow made it difficult to obtain an accurate measurement. Some towns had multiple reports and totals that appeared to be too high based off of surrounding reports were not used. Some warm-advection snow lifted into Connecticut as early as the ni

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Dec. 17, 2013

Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. A clipper system that gave way to a coastal low just south of Long Island resulted in generally 2 to 4 inches of snow across the state. There were a few localized totals of just over 4 inches, but there were no reports over 5.0 inches. The highest totals were across

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe Weather Possible This Weekend

The potential exists for a low-end severe weather outbreak across portions of the Plains this weekend, April 12th-13th. The first focus is on Saturday afternoon into the overnight period across the central Plains. Surface low pressure is forecast to move to a position in the vicinity of the Oklahoma panhandle by 00z Sunday. Now while there is good agreement among the models of destablization in the warm sector, capping will likely mitigate any convective activity for most of the day. However,

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Mar. 7-8, 2013

Here are some maps that I compiled from various sources. Most of the reports came in through the National Weather Service, with a few from this forum and social media reports that passed through quality control. Snowfall amounts were greatest across the higher terrain of Tolland County. This was due to a persistent band of moderate to heavy snow, as well as the altitude as temperatures were marginal through a portion of the event. Totals in the Connecticut River valley and the immediate shorel

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: February 8-9, 2013

I just want to quickly share my latest thoughts for Connecticut and surrounding areas. There's little doubt that a strong storm with plenty of precipitation will impact the tri-state area and southern New England Friday into early Saturday, but there are still a few details to discuss. Concern #1: Mixing along the shoreline. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation to fall near the Connecticut shoreline and coastal Rhode Island for several hours. With that said, as lo

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Jan. 21-22, 2014

Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Flurries began to move into Connecticut shortly after daybreak on January 21st. The snow gradually overspread the state from southwest to northeast and light accumulations were noted across southwestern Connecticut by midday. As an area of low pressure developed of

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Feb. 18, 2014

Here are some filtered snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Flurries and light snow moved into Connecticut around daybreak on February 18th as low pressure formed east of New Jersey. The snow moved east and began to develop into a steadier area of snow across New Haven and Middlesex Counties. As a compact, but poten

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook Friday, June 28th: Northeast/mid-Atl.

An upper level trough across the Great Lakes is associated with areas of surface low pressure in and around New York State. Bands of showers and thunderstorms have been pinwheeling through the eastern United States as a result. By afternoon, more organized thunderstorm development is expected and some storms could become severe. Isolated severe thunderstorm threat... Low pressure is spinning across New York State. An area of increased wind shear is in place along the east of the Appalachians.

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in Massachusetts, May 9th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m. An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Feb. 5, 2014

Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Light snow overspread the state from southwest to northeast shortly after midnight on February 5th. This was ahead of a low pressure system that was moving into the eastern Ohio Valley. The snow quickly became heavy at times around daybreak, with snowfall rates of 1

Quincy

Quincy

 

April Outlook - Central/Eastern U.S.

A colder than average pattern may persist into April across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Based on the information I've been reviewing over the past several days, I have enough confidence to post a temperature outlook for the month of April. As I see it, below average temperatures will likely continue from the Great Lakes into interior New England and up toward Hudson Bay Canada. I expect a continuation of troughiness extending from southeast Canada into portions of the Northeast. While the h

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Dec. 14-15, 2013

Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. It should be noted that some of the reports include sleet. A general 4 to 8 inch snowfall blanketed the state before a changeover to sleet and in some cases freezing rain/rain. Very few totals deviated from that range, except for a few 8"+ reports in northwester

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in New York, April 19th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m. A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat. As a result, a Tornado Wa

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: March 6-8, 2013

Just a very brief discussion: Low pressure slowly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A relatively broad storm with possible multiple low centers spin around and pinwheel periods of snow (some rain mixing in at the coastal plain) through the region from Wednesday into Friday. This looks to be an elevation-dependent event, but heavy amounts or precipitation across eastern Mass., eastern Conn. and much of R.I. will help offset some of the "snow losses." In those a

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Apr. 15-16, 2014

Here are some filtered snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. After early afternoon highs in the lower 60s across much of Connecticut on April 15th, a strong cold front moved through the area at night. Rain quickly changed to sleet and snow across the higher elevations of western Connecticut between 8 and 11 p.m. Alth

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snow/Ice Forecast for CT & Vicinity

I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts. Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain. By late aft

Quincy

Quincy

 

New England Severe Bust? 7/15/2014

There was a lot of anticipation leading up to July 15th. Some argued there was a "very impressive" severe setup unfolding for (southern) New England, but there was plenty of disagreement with the placement and potential severity of such an event. For a quick summary, the severe weather parameters in place (both forecast prior and during) the event were marginal compared to past severe events in southern New England. Not one important severe weather parameter was terribly impressive and there we

Quincy

Quincy

 

Northeast Tornado Stats: 2013

Here's a recap of the 2013 tornado season across the Northeast. Connecticut had four reports of tornadoes during 2013, which is roughly twice the average amount of about two. Keep in mind that 2012 had no tornadoes in the state, so one could argue that this was nature's way of balancing itself out. Elsewhere, New Jersey was the only other state in the Northeast with above average tornado reports. (They average two per year, but had three in 2013) Maine is not pictured here, but Maine had at le

Quincy

Quincy

 

Supercells in Massachusetts Aug. 4

A series of supercell thunderstorms moved through central and eastern Massachusetts this afternoon. Some of the storms prompted tornado warnings and there were multiple significant severe weather reports as a result. Some of the thunderstorms originated as far west as eastern New York and later reached peak intensity as they moved into portions of central and southern New England. Even the coastal community of Boston was hit with some regionally impressive severe weather. The prelude to these a

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook Through Friday Morning: NE/mid-Atl.

Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region. Isolated thunderstorm threat... Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Nov. 26-27, 2014

Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included. Light rain developed during the morning hours on November 26th and mixed with some sleet inland. Wet snow initially confined to the far northwestern corner of the state. As steadier precip

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe Weather Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are likely today across portions of the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms early this morning may be marginally severe across portions of Iowa, northern Missouri and Illinois. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from late morning into the early afternoon hours further south before a more serious threat develops. Sunday afternoon, low pressure will be in the vicinity of the central border between Texas and Oklahoma. An upper level shortwa

Quincy

Quincy