The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5".
I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.
The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m.
An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. It should be noted that some of the reports include sleet.
A general 4 to 8 inch snowfall blanketed the state before a changeover to sleet and in some cases freezing rain/rain. Very few totals deviated from that range, except for a few 8"+ reports in northwester
Over a 50-year span from 1962 to 2011, the most violent (F/EF-4 and F/EF-5) tornadoes occurred over Oklahoma and Mississippi. The maximum grid-points reported 16 over that period, with two of those grid-points in central Oklahoma and one in central Mississippi.
While a broad area from the Plains to the mid-South sees the most tornadoes overall across the United States, there are three sub-areas with the most violent tornadoes. Much of Oklahoma falls into that category, as it is widely considere
I see this event as a widespread 2-4 incher across most of interior SNE. The tough call comes along I-95 for BOS-PVD-GON, as often is the case. I do think most areas even along the South Shore get a thump of snow/sleet at the beginning.
I'm not really all that confident on widespread 4"+ amounts, but I've outlined an area with a black dotted line that could see locally 5-6 inches.
I also expect precipitation to quickly shut off in the morning (by 7 or 8 a.m. across much of Connecticut) and ta
Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam.
The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv
The potential exists for a low-end severe weather outbreak across portions of the Plains this weekend, April 12th-13th.
The first focus is on Saturday afternoon into the overnight period across the central Plains. Surface low pressure is forecast to move to a position in the vicinity of the Oklahoma panhandle by 00z Sunday. Now while there is good agreement among the models of destablization in the warm sector, capping will likely mitigate any convective activity for most of the day. However,
Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in.
Event Summary:
Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania.
The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon.
Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m
Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports.
There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys.
Below is a color, contoured map I put together:
This isn't really a big event, but due to the amount of discussion it's had, I felt a map was warranted.
Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes brings an usual push of generally light snow towards the Appalachians. A new area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the mid-Atlantic region, enhancing snowfall amounts ever so slightly around the coastal plain. This map does not show it, but light snow should extend southward into Virginia.
I believe that most areas will see an inch or l
I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts.
Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain.
By late aft
Generally light snow overspread Connecticut from west to east during the morning on January 28th. Snow continued into the early afternoon and at the same time, warmer air moved in aloft. A change to sleet and freezing rain occurred from southwest to northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor changing over to plain rain.
Precipitation tapered off to intermittent drizzle with freezing drizzle across much of the interior by early evening.
Snowfall totals were fairly uniform with most areas pic
I just want to quickly share my latest thoughts for Connecticut and surrounding areas.
There's little doubt that a strong storm with plenty of precipitation will impact the tri-state area and southern New England Friday into early Saturday, but there are still a few details to discuss.
Concern #1:
Mixing along the shoreline. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation to fall near the Connecticut shoreline and coastal Rhode Island for several hours. With that said, as lo
I expect mostly snow for just about all of southern New England (pictured on this map). Although there may be a brief mixture along the I-95 corridor in Conn./RI, I expect crashing temperatures and heights to bring a wind-driven snow right down to the coast and into eastern Long Island.
As far as snowfall totals go, I think that higher ratios will help push NW Conn. and W Mass. to 20"+. Further east, heavy precipitation will offset somewhat lower ratios for 20"+ from IJD to BOS. There is still
What a challenging forecast and I still think the models have more to resolve, mainly on Sunday with respect to enhancement of snow along a trough.
Essentially, a light mixture of rain and snow overspreads the region through later today. Across the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I expect virtually no daytime snow accumulation. Low pressure develops south of the area tonight, but the heaviest precipitation and best lift also stays south.
Some snow
Outside of the hilly terrain across the interior, this snow event does not look like a big deal. I expect 3-6"+ across the east slopes of the Berkshires and much of Worcester County. Connecticut only sees a brief period of rain, with generally 1-3" across the northern hills.
The boundary layer temperatures are simply too marginal for much to change, especially with dew-points in the upper 20's as of early Tuesday evening. Downstream observations don't indicate that cold air damming across New E
Just a very brief discussion:
Low pressure slowly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A relatively broad storm with possible multiple low centers spin around and pinwheel periods of snow (some rain mixing in at the coastal plain) through the region from Wednesday into Friday.
This looks to be an elevation-dependent event, but heavy amounts or precipitation across eastern Mass., eastern Conn. and much of R.I. will help offset some of the "snow losses." In those a
I don't really expect much snowfall at all tonight. For some continuity and a slight amount of uncertainty, I painted the entire area with 2" or less of snow. Eastern Conn. and northern R.I. have perhaps a 50/50 shot at 1-2": of snow, while the rest of the area has a high probability of receiving less than 1".
Temperatures and moisture look very marginal and although some precipitation should back southern sections of southern New England, I don't see it being a big deal. There may be a few slu
Here are some maps that I compiled from various sources. Most of the reports came in through the National Weather Service, with a few from this forum and social media reports that passed through quality control.
Snowfall amounts were greatest across the higher terrain of Tolland County. This was due to a persistent band of moderate to heavy snow, as well as the altitude as temperatures were marginal through a portion of the event.
Totals in the Connecticut River valley and the immediate shorel
A strong low pressure system is forecast to move up into the Great Lakes by Thursday and eventually into southeastern Canada late Friday into Saturday. A potent cold front associated with this storm will move towards the Appalachians by the second half of Friday. (For Wednesday and Thursday, severe thunderstorm activity is probable for the Mississippi Valley and portions of the western Ohio River Valley.
I see a marginal setup for severe storms from Central N.Y. into the middle Appalachians. Ev
A strong cold front approaches the Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Along that cold front, a squall line with thunderstorms is currently expected is develop.
(Marginal threat)
Middle Appalachians into Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and interior New York:
Daytime heating is expected to push temperatures into the low to mid-70's in the valley locations with mid to upper 60's in the higher elevations. Low and mid-level clouds will likely limit just how unstable the atmosphere c
The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m.
A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat.
As a result, a Tornado Wa
A cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the East Coast on Wednesday. The result could mean scattered thunderstorms along the front, along with a few severe thunderstorms.
(Marginal threat)
Middle Appalachians into DE, PA, inland NJ and interior NY.
A similar setup to this past Friday is expected on Wednesday, with a cold front moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The only difference here is that the cold front is not as strong as that scenario (last
I've been creating daily 6-day forecasts for the better part of this year, with a focus on inland Connecticut. Before making any forecast, I take a close look at the computer model forecasts through Day 6, including a few forecast techniques to see how verification pans out. In April, I had 29 days worth of data, out of a possible 30, to measure forecast accuracy.
As expected, forecast error generally increases with time. It is interesting to note a spike at Day 5 and a decrease at Day 6. That
As a cold front moves towards the East Coast on Saturday, some thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Mid-Atlantic region (east of Appalachians), lower Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Conditions will destabilize in a warm, somewhat moist air-mass before an approaching cold front swings from west to east through the area. The biggest question mark is how much daytime heating wi
