Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential. The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events. The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today. I could take the
Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential. A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward. Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past. However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years. Enough with the
It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates: 15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow. As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box. Weather forecasting is the same basic idea. The difference and is a major di
Just to update the area, with another day tomorrow at least 10 degrees F above normal expect temps to drop throughout the week. Snow returns next weekend. Not until then, the threats for this week are rain at this point in SE New England.
I-95 corridor from eastern CT to NE MA - 2-4"
SE MA interior includes city of Boston, MA 2-4"
Cape Cod Canal eastward to Hyannis 4-6"
Hyannis eastward to Provincetown 6"+
Snowfall forecasts for the January 7/8, 2029 Snow event
**Alert Level - Awareness!**
Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness. Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period. January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period. We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle.
That is all for
**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE. Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.**
A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US. Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source. I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family. Love you all. Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
All I can say to sum up what the pattern looks like the next ten days for coastal SE MA, is "Meh" a good ten day period to write a novel. I will update once something pops on the radar. Enjoy the 50s tomorrow.
The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period. Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year. The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period. Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload
Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect. In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather. The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides. What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm. Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overal
On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005. I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years. In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity. Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself. Struggling with family problems that latter turned
The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands. AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops. If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heav
The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow. Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction. This is very poor for
Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday. I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm. There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.
Models are showing a colder solution envelope in latest runs today, this could be temporary until the short range models get involved. My initial map is a warmer solution for the coastline. My thoughts are bound to change though, so this is the preliminary map issued.
Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region. A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow. This is a major snow event for this time of year.
Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles. 06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run. The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions. We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm. The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers. SNE will s
Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting. Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn. Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting. 40s for temps.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football. The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA. A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather. Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.